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Delphi Technique explained

Delphi Technique: this article describes the theory and concept of the Delphi Technique , developed by RAND Corporation in a practical way. Next to what this research technique is, this article also highlights the approach, the definition and elemenst, how to apply and a practical Delphi Technique example. After reading you will understand the basics of this powerful decision making and problem solving tool. Enjoy reading!

What is Delphi Technique?

The Delphi Technique, or Delphi studies, started out as a technique to predict the future. It was developed by the RAND Corporation in 1950, as for the US air force.

The RAND Corporation is an American think-tank that was founded in 1946 by the US air force. A few years later, it became an independent non-profit. Originally, the Delphi Technique was aimed at predicting the impact of technology on warfare.

For this decision making method, a group of experts (expert consensus) are asked to anonymously answer a survey and provide feedback on each other’s answers. This process repeats itself. The aim is to come up with concrete solutions.

Approach of the Delphi Process

The Delphi Technique uses a carefully designed list of questions that is developed and refined in several rounds. Sometimes, interviews are used.

The experts in question answer the questionnaire anonymously and are then confronted with each other’s knowledge and views. They do not know each other and do not know who else is in the panel of experts. These expert opinions are very valuable in the process.

There is a feedback mechanism; obtained information is recorded and reported to participants regularly, as part of a new attempt at information processing. The feedback is not just about the actual future expectations that are being expressed, but also the arguments and considerations that underpin these expectations. In this way, you can work towards a well-founded joint position.

By confronting the participants with each other’s ideas and insights in each new round, you can work towards a consensus. In this way, the Delphi Method asks experts for their recommendations.

The number of participants is not relevant. However, there must be the assurance that different interests and problem definitions are addressed, so that a problem or topic is viewed from different perspectives and discussed, and all participants respect each other’s contributions.

Figure 1 – The Delphi Technique Process

Delphi Technique definition and elements

The Delphi Technique is part of the research technique that is also known as ‘interactive survey’, which involves dialogue with the public (experimental application). It is based on an articulate research field, which in principle is capable of introducing the necessary expertise. It aims for a solution that consists of knowledge from the research field, rather than knowledge about it. Important elements within the Delphi method are:

• It uses the opinions of a limited group of experts or people who have knowledge of the subject from their experience.
• The subjects that an organisation wants to understand through the Delphi method are obtained by subjective means; the opinions of the group of experts are therefore very important.
• The group of experts works towards a consensus, through step-by-step feedback of information, by repeating the question and providing feedback on each other’s answers.

Application of delphi technique

The possible applications of Delphi are endless. It is not only applicable for making forecasts or future forecasts, but it can also be useful for determining complicated policy decisions. In principle, the Delphi Technique can be properly applied for the following situations:

• For an organisation in which the formal and informal communication lines have become blocked or are lacking. The anonymous method prevents personal contact, which means that stuck relationships do not get damaged any further and there is more room for new solutions and more respect for each other’s opinions.
• In the case of problems that can be solved mainly when multiple experts are confronted with each other’s varying visions. Everyone’s individual subjective opinion contributes, so that their shared thinking will lead to an effective approach.
• In the case of solutions that are too subject to individual opinions and perceptions of those involved, it may help to work with an anonymous group who independently express their views on the problem.
• In the absence of objective data, such as customer reviews and other audience reviews. When the opinion of all these groups is important in a specific problem solving, the Delphi Method works very well.

The great advantage of the Delphi Technique is the anonymity. It is not shared who the participants are or who provided the information. This prevents distortion that can sometimes occur when participants conform to the opinion of an expert who has very high prestige.

What is a Delphi technique example?

Suppose there is a problem in a municipality regarding informing residents in different districts. If the Delphi Technique were to be used for this problem, this municipality would initially appoint a project leader and gather a group of experts involved in this problem statement. With the Delphi Method, the experts in the field of communication to citizens are systematically used to address this problem.

In the first round of the method, participants will fill in a questionnaire, with concrete questions about the problem statement. The project leader then compiles a summary of all completed questionnaires, which is then returned to all participants. By sharing all the views and relevant information, participants will be better able to reflect on their own views.

In the second round, participants re-enter the questionnaire. After each round, experts’ answers will become more similar without affecting each other. Of course, their own opinions and ideas are subjective and based on everyone’s individual experience or knowledge.

The experts are people working in research fields that directly relate to communication between residents and municipalities.

For example, consider a representative from every neighbourhood, a communications officer from the municipality, a communications agency employee and a local newspaper representative.

The query and feedback process is repeated until a consensus is reached between the participants.

Finally, by combining the expertise of the experts, recommendations can be formulated based on the more complete information, resulting in high-quality and useful recommendations.

Brainstorming and Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique is often compared to brainstorming .

These is one essential difference between the Delphi Technique and the brainstorm technique : with the Delphi Technique, there is no direct group interaction. The participants do not engage in conversation with each other, cannot discuss with each other and do not build on each other’s ideas, as is done in brainstorming.

It’s Your Turn

What do you think? Is the Delphi Technique applicable in today’s modern business and team challenges? Do you recognize the practical explanation of the Delphi oracle or do you have more suggestions? What are your success factors for a good decision making process?

Share your experience and knowledge in the comments box below.

More information

• Dalkey, N. C., Brown, B. B., & Cochran, S. (1969). The Delphi method: An experimental study of group opinion (Vol. 3) . Santa Monica, CA: Rand Corporation.
• Linstone, H. A., & Turoff, M. (Eds.). (1975). The Delphi method: Techniques and applications (Vol. 29) . Reading, MA: Addison-Wesley.
• Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International journal of forecasting, 15(4), 353-375.

How to cite this article: Mulder, P. (2017). Delphi Technique . Retrieved [insert date] from Toolshero: https://www.toolshero.com/decision-making/delphi-technique/

Original publication date: 04/04/2018 | Last update: 08/31/2023

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Patty Mulder

Patty Mulder is an Dutch expert on Management Skills, Personal Effectiveness and Business Communication. She is also a Content writer, Business Coach and Company Trainer and lives in the Netherlands (Europe). Note: all her articles are written in Dutch and we translated her articles to English!

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One response to “delphi technique explained”.

The Delphi technique seems like one of the most efficient and non-organized ways of coming up with a direct solution. Some of the reasons why it wouldn’t be such a good idea to use the Delphi technique would be the ego of all the smart people. Basically, since all the geniuses think on their own and have different morals or ethics they will be subjected to think that only their opinion matters. Hence, they will be influenced by themselves to disagree with every opinion that isn’t theirs. This would most likely result to no solid solution to the problem which either some or all the smart people to come to a disagreement thus disapproving the Delphi technique. Not only would the experts believe that they are only right base don ego but by the fact that the opinions are anonymous so of course they would be biased towards their own word since they don’t know if the other person is an expert too. But on the other hand, if that doesn’t happen it would be very useful to use the Delphi technique. The experts can learn from each other mistakes and when agreeing on only one solution then they can use that exact solution on the specific problem going on in their lives. Not only that but there would be a guarantee of bias towards another’s opinion since all of them would be anonymous to each other. Ergo, the technique would be a guarantee way to solve an issue.

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Understanding and applying the Delphi technique

Product managers have to wear multiple hats at work. One of these hats requires you to facilitate meetings. Everyone appreciates an effective, efficient meeting, and the Delphi technique can help you do this.

Besides facilitation, the Delphi technique is a great tool for decision-making. It’s commonly used in various fields, including business, healthcare, technology, and public policy.

In this article, you’ll learn more about the Delphi technique including its five steps, benefits, and use.

What is the Delphi technique?

The Delphi technique is a systematic method for group decision-making. It’s used to gather opinions from a group of knowledgeable members to reach a group consensus. The process typically involves several rounds of questionnaires where the responses remain anonymous.

5 steps of the Delphi technique

You can incorporate the Delphi technique into your product team by following five easy steps.

1. Determine the problem

In product management, people tend to emphasize the “problem space” or the “problem statement.” You first have to understand the problem to solve, the purpose of the study, and the goal you want to achieve before conducting research.

In this step, the problem statement needs to be clear and specific. It outlines the gap between the current state and the desired state, providing a foundation for further investigation and problem-solving. With a clear problem statement, you can smooth out the process in later steps.

2. Identify a group of experts

The central tenet of the Delphi technique involves consulting with relevant stakeholders or individuals with expertise. Different perspectives can provide valuable insights and help the panel consider aspects that might have been overlooked.

In the previous step, you identified the problems to solve. Now you need to determine which “subject matter experts” to include, depending on the complexity of the problem.

3. Choose a facilitator

The facilitator of the Delphi process is usually, but not limited to, a product manager, project manager, or program manager. The facilitator should be neutral and have enough domain knowledge to understand the conversations.

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4. Launch rounds of questionnaires

To complete the Delphi process, you need to run multiple rounds of questionnaires or surveys. In each round, you’ll ask the panel of experts to provide their opinions, predictions, or judgments on a list of questions for the problem determined in the first step:

The above illustration shows how the rounds of questionnaires are iteratively designed and answered:

• The facilitator hands out questionnaires
• The panel of experts answers the questions anonymously
• The facilitator reviews the answers to find the themes between the answers and then shows the themes to the experts.
• The panel of experts adds new answers or adjust their original answers based on the feedback they receive from the panel
• The facilitator designs questions for the next round based on answers from previous rounds

You can distribute your questionnaires before each round. Generally, there should be at least two rounds of questionnaires. The first round is usually for asking high-level questions to kickstart the whole process. The rest of the rounds are for follow-up questions and for experts to adjust their answers until a general group consensus is reached.

5. Analyze the feedback and results

Once the panel of experts reaches a consensus, we can analyze the results and evaluate risks. The team can create plans and action items.

What are the benefits of the Delphi technique?

The Delphi technique provides three key benefits for you as a product manager.

The responses of each expert are kept anonymous. This helps to avoid the influence of dominant personalities or opinions within the group. This setup also encourages open and honest sharing of opinions.

Systematic process of iteration

The Delphi technique is a structured and systematic process involving multiple rounds of feedback and iteration. The opinions of the subject matter experts can be refined over time, leading to a more reliable outcome.

Prevent groupthink

Groupthink is a psychological phenomenon where group members tend to conform to a dominant viewpoint without critical evaluation to avoid conflicts. In the Delphi process, by collecting individual opinions independently and collating them without direct interaction among participants, the risk of groupthink is minimized.

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The disadvantages of the Delphi technique

Although there are benefits to the Delphi technique, you should be aware of the disadvantages that come along with them to prevent affecting your process.

Time-consuming

Multiple rounds of feedback and iteration take a lot of time. While choosing a decision-making process, you need to consider the time constraints. The Delphi technique may not be the best option if your organization needs to reach a quick decision in a short timeframe.

Expert bias

The success of the Delphi technique heavily depends on the expertise and knowledge of the participants. If the experts have biases or limited perspectives, it can impact the quality of the final outcome.

Difficulty in handling complex issues

The Delphi technique may be less effective in dealing with highly complex or technical issues where consensus is hard to achieve, or where there is a lack of relevant expertise among the participants.

How can product managers use the Delphi technique?

Product managers can leverage the Delphi technique to gather insights, make informed decisions, and forecast outcomes. Here are some areas PMs can try.

Market validation

In the early stage of product development, you have to conduct research to find product-market fit . While conducting market validation for your product, it’s crucial to gather expert opinions on market trends, demand for specific features, or predictions for future market conditions.

By using the Delphi technique, you can obtain insights into potential shifts in customer preferences and emerging market opportunities. On the other hand, PMs can explore potential opportunities and threats in the market with the Delphi technique as well.

Strategic planning

While conducting competitor analysis , insights from subject matter experts make the analysis more complete regarding competitor strategies, strengths, and weaknesses. The Delphi technique can help product managers forecast potential competitive moves and assess the impact on their long-term product strategy.

The Delphi technique is a valuable tool for product managers. The five-step method ensures a systematic approach to group decision-making by leveraging the expertise of subject matter experts while maintaining anonymity throughout the process.

The goal of the Delphi technique is to achieve a consensus or convergence of opinions among the experts. The final results are based on the collective judgment of the group. It helps to mitigate the impact of groupthink and interpersonal dynamics that can affect traditional group decision-making processes.

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Delphi Technique Explained with Examples

Editorial Team

Delphi technique allows group members to submit anonymous feedback to encourage open dialogue from group members based on their own experiences and perspectives. Organizations use Delphi technique when they want to include and implement opinions from many people.

Delphi technique allows for more feedback while allowing people who can’t make it to an in-person meeting to participate in the conversation. It’s also used with significant effect by marketers in developing surveys and questionnaires to garner honest feedback from clients or customers. In this article, we will explain the Delphi technique and how organizations can use it to address their complex and controversial issues through a structured debate.

What is the Delphi Technique?

Delphi technique refers to a process where organizations collect information from experts using several rounds of questions. It’s a systematic and qualitative method that relies on experts to forecast the future outcome where they are much knowledgeable about.

Delphi technique comprises several written questionnaires that utilize the opinions of experts. Experts give their answers to each round-up of questionnaires. Then the facilitator gathers all answers and issues a summary report of the answers to each expert.

The experts analyze the summary reports and either agree or disagree with other expert’s answers. After analyzing the summary reports, the experts fill out another questionnaire that allows them to offer opinions based on their understanding of the summary reports. It only becomes complete when the experts reach an agreement on their forecasts.

When is the Delphi Technique Used?

Delphi technique is a significant methodology when an organization doesn’t know a real answer to a problem. Experts give a wide range of opinions, thus useful and prevent biases that result from relying on a single expert. Delphi technique applies when:

• A company desires subjective statements that come from a collective basis
• There are large sample sizes, and face to face interaction becomes unreliable
• It’s crucial to hide identity, especially on issues that are political or intractable
• There are high chances that one member would dominate the group discussion

Delphi Technique Process

Out of all the various change management models, the Delphi technique is often only associated with the consensus approach. It’s in many ways similar to the nominal group process (NGP) in that it requires a facilitator and several rounds of communications between people with opposing views. However, its unique value proposition distinguishes it from the nominal group process model and other related approaches. It promotes a more objective opinion on controversial topics than similar approaches.

• Identify issues and objectives.

An organization needs to identify their issue at hand and its main goal for using the Delphi technique. They should research and ascertain the importance of the thing they want to forecast.

• Select a facilitator and a team of experts

Experts can include internal or external individuals in the company. They may consist of the project team or any individual who is knowledgeable about a specific topic. The facilitator needs to occupy a neutral position and be a person who has experience in data collection and research.

• Round one questionnaire

The facilitator issues the experts with their first questionnaire. The questions are usually open-ended to allow the experts to brainstorm their ideas. The facilitator takes the questionnaires from the experts and comes up with a summary report for the answers which he gives the experts. The experts don’t reveal their identity, as this helps them share their opinions without fear.

• Round two questionnaire

An organization needs to set the questionnaire basing on the answers the experts gave in round one. They should identify similarities in the responses and leave out solutions that were out of context. The second questionnaire needs to follow answers that show consensus among the experts.

The expert’s opinions and answers in this questionnaire may remain the same or have a few changes. They may change their views after reading the summary report of the first questionnaire. The facilitator then makes a summary report of the second questionnaire answers and give the experts.

• Round three questionnaire

An organization needs to create a third-round questionnaire using the same ideas as the second questionnaire. The questionnaire is a result of the analysis of the second questionnaire. The facilitator then collects the questionnaires and comes up with a summary report answers which he gives the experts.

You can opt to stop here if you feel you have gathered enough information or continue with the questionnaire until you achieve your desired answers.

• Act on your findings

After the round three questionnaires, the experts should have reached a consensus, and hence an organization have a clear view of future events. An organization should now evaluate the results and develop a strategy to handle future opportunities and risks to their project.

Tips for Effective Delphi Technique

Every successful business out there knows that marketing is the key to success. The name of the game is to get as many clients as possible. When a business has more clients, profits go up, and client retention also increases. And that’s where the Delphi technique process comes in handy to get the best results for handling clients. Below are practical tips which will help you to get great results from the Delphi technique.

• Assessments

The experts should assess a situation before coming up with strategies to manage the assessment, including current issues, threats, or company expectations. From the reviews, they can now come up with ways to fix the problems.

• Carrying capacity

An organization should consider the capacity of experts they can hold. The ability relies on the resources and cost of conducting the survey. It should be within the company’s power to avoid misunderstandings between the experts and the company.

A company needs to consider the context in which they will apply the solution the experts give. Context refers to the ecological, managerial, and social atmosphere in which the organization will use the plan.

• The desire for future conditions

An effective questionnaire should include the project the company wants to achieve. The prescriptions will give experts the basis for them to answer the questions and ensure their thoughts don’t differ.

• Financial planning

Ensure you have enough resources and money to facilitate the research. Proper financial planning prevents the company from pausing the Delphi process due to the inability to pay the experts.

Once the experts give their view and a company comes up with a plan to achieve the results, they should closely monitor the plan to determine if it’s in line with achieving the desired outcome.

Advantages of Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique is a simple way to structure the conversation between users and potential buyers. A company can determine what people think and feel about their product and then decide what steps to improve it.

Additionally, it’s a consensus-building method that seeks the opinions of a panel of experts. Each expert makes independent predictions and judgments about the subjects of a study without knowing the forecasts or assessments of the other experts. Some of its advantages include:

• Ensures collaboration

Anonymity prevents the impacts of dominant individuals, thus reduce the peer pressure to conform. It allows experts to give their opinions freely, without any judgments.

• Equal opinions

The facilitator must rate all the expert opinions equally. Thus, an individual can’t shift the group’s views.

• Reduces conflicts

The facilitator provides controlled feedback on the expert’s opinions, reducing disagreements and allowing participants to reconsider their input based on the other expert’s opinions.

• Reduced drawbacks

Delphi technique allows an organization to use a committee with few drawbacks such as scheduling, lengthy discussion, and travel arrangements.

Disadvantages of Delphi Technique

• Insufficient methodological guidelines
• The experts must be committed to answering similar questions over and over again.
• No evidence of reliability, i.e., a facilitator may issue two experts with a set of the questionnaire and they may not come to the same consensus.
• Limits the experts from discussing with one another, thus hinders them from sharing their views on the matter.
• The consensus doesn’t mean that the experts have got a correct answer. It only implies that the experts have found an area that they consider crucial to the topic.
• Its time consuming since the facilitator needs to conduct repetitive questions to come up with a common consensus.
• The process may become complex due to an increase in multiple and repetitive rounds.

Example/Application of Delphi Technique

The united states government intended to gather information on the number of teen pregnancies in a particular municipality. To collect the data, the government appointed a project facilitator. It then selected a group of experts who knew the city. The experts were excellent in communicating with the residents.

The facilitator did an analysis and came up with a survey that clearly stated the problem to the experts. The experts did round one questionnaire to which the facilitator analyzed the answers and came up with a summary report answers which he gave to the experts.

In the second questionnaire, the facilitator developed questions basing on the first-round questionnaire. The experts also gave their answers, to which the facilitator also made a summary report answer and handed it to the experts. He did the same for the third questionnaire, in which the experts reached a consensus.

Through the help of the solutions and suggestions from experts, the facilitator found the most efficient and top-quality information, which helped solve the problem.

The second application of the Delphi technique is of a project manager who desires to achieve canvas opinions and reach a consensus of how their products can be successful in the marketplace. The manager settles on the Delphi technique and opts to invite the top 50 people in the organization to participate.

The manager sets the questionnaires and asks the participants to rate the following options for them to accomplish their goals:

• Improve team productivity
• Give a tiered product pricing
• Add more people to the sales team
• Give faster feedbacks to customers

The manager used the number of questions to decide the points the experts should assign each question. Since there are five questions, the participants had to give points from 1 to 5. Five being the highest and one the lowest.

Below is a summary of how the participants gave their rating.

From the above table, only two participants, Mary, and rose gave five points. The comment was for the company to expand into German. The facilitator collected all the questionnaires, analyzed the answers, came up with a summary report answers, and gave it to the experts.

The experts answer to the second questionnaire was as follows:

The company continued with the questionnaires until they achieved what they wanted or got a low standard deviation. The typical standard deviation shows that there is a low variance for an item in the list. In this case, there is a low variance for launch in Germany. That means that most people agree with the idea of launching the business in Germany.

The item with the highest mean value will impact its more crucial, and that the organization needs to focus on it to achieve higher sales. From the example, the company settled for launching their business in Germany since it had more votes. That means it’s the best goal for the company.

Some organizations run into problems or different challenges in accomplishing their goals. That’s because there is no (or a little) company-wide consensus on which direction the organization should pursue, given that there are several paths to reach the same ultimate goal. However, using the Delphi technique will help solve the problem. Delphi technique uses experts with a vast knowledge of the topic, thus allowing your organization to follow the right path to achieve its success.

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Delphi Technique a Step-by-Step Guide

Tools | By Duncan Haughey | Read time minutes

For a project manager, it is essential to think about what future events may impact your projects. These events may be positive or negative, so understanding them allows you to prepare and plan to deal with them. But how can you forecast the future with any degree of certainty? The Delphi Technique can help.

The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.

The group members, known as panellists, discuss and review the summary report and give updated forecasts to the facilitator, who again reviews the material and issues a second report. This process continues until all participants reach a consensus.

The experts at each round have a complete record of what forecasts other experts have made. Still, they do not know who made which forecast. Anonymity allows the experts to express their opinions freely, encourages openness and avoids admitting errors by revising earlier forecasts.

This article looks at how to run a Delphi session. Upon completing this guide, you will be able to run a session enabling you to predict future events and their likely impact on your projects.

The technique is an iterative process and first aims to get a broad range of opinions from a group of experts. The results of the first round of questions, when summarised, provide the basis for the second round of questions. Results from the second round of questions feed into the third and final round.

The aim is to clarify and expand on issues, identify areas of agreement or disagreement, and find consensus.

Step 1: Choose a Facilitator

The first step is to choose your facilitator. You may wish to take on this role yourself or find a neutral person within your organisation. It is helpful to have someone familiar with research and data collection.

Step 2: Identify Your Experts

The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. This panel might be your project team, including the customer or other experts within your organisation or industry. An expert is any individual with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic. [1]

Step 3: Define the Problem

What is the problem or issue you are seeking to understand? The experts need to know what situation they are commenting on, so ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition.

Step 4: Round One Questions

Ask general questions to gain a broad understanding of the experts' views on future events. The questions may go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Collate and summarise the responses, removing any irrelevant material and looking for common viewpoints.

Step 5: Round Two Questions

Based on the answers to the first questions, the following questions should delve deeper into the topic to clarify specific issues. These questions may also go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Again, collate and summarise the results, removing any irrelevant material and look for the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build consensus.

Step 6: Round Three Questions

The final questionnaire aims to focus on supporting decision making. Hone in on the areas of agreement. What is it upon which the experts are all agreed?

You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus.

Step 7: Act on Your Findings

After this round of questions, your experts will have, we hope, reached a consensus, and you will have a view of future events. Analyse the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities to your project.

Use the Delphi Technique to create work breakdown structures, identify risks and opportunities, and compile a lessons learned report. Use it anytime you would usually conduct a brainstorming session.

Predicting the future is not an exact science, but the Delphi Technique can help you understand the likelihood of future events and what impact they may have on your project.

[1] Cantrill JA, SibbaldB, Buetow S. The Delphi and Nominal Group Techniques in Health Services Research. International Journal of Pharmacy Practice 1996;4:67-74

Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey of the Rand Corporation developed the Delphi Method in the 1950s to address a specific military problem.

Recommended read: The Top Five Software Project Risks by Mike Griffiths.

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The Delphi method is a technique used in group decision-making and some forms of qualitative research. It involves gathering a panel of experts, having them complete a survey or questionnaire individually, and sharing these anonymised answers within the panel to allow for feedback and debate. Each expert is presented with the questions again, and the process is repeated. It is expected that all opinions will eventually converge around a general consensus.

The Delphi method has been used extensively in forecasting, especially in business and technology. It’s also a commonly used tool in public policy: when policymakers use panels of experts to inform decisions around issues like healthcare, education and climate change, they frequently make use of the Delphi method.

Where all think alike, no one thinks very much. – Walter Lippman

Delphi Method  – A research/decision-making technique in which individual experts give their opinion on a particular subject, then respond to the opinions of others.  Afterward, they evaluate their decision again before presenting it for the final time. In most cases, an alignment of opinions arises surrounding a general consensus.

Wisdom of Crowds  – The theory that decisions made by groups are usually of better quality than those made by individuals.

Consensus  – A general agreement reached by members of a group.

Although the name was inspired by the ‘Oracle of Delphi’, a high priestess of Ancient Greece, The Delphi method has its roots in military warfare. The method was developed in the United States at the onset of the Cold War, as a way to predict the role that technology would play in future combative events. 1  So, unlike the vast majority of theories and methods we encounter in behavioral science, the Delphi method didn’t really come about by way of academic research.

In 1944, General Henry Arnold commissioned a report for the United States Air Corps on technological capabilities that might be deployed by the military in the future. After much trial-and-error of conventional approaches to forecasting, including quantitative models and trend extrapolation, it became apparent that a novel technique was required when forecasting situations that involve yet-to-be-determined parameters. As a result, the American public policy think-tank RAND Corporation, led by Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer, developed the Delphi method. In its early applications, the technique was used to investigate the probability and potential effects of future attacks on the United States. Experts made estimates, discussed them, and then estimated again, in a process that would be known as ‘Estimate-Talk-Estimate’. The idea was that opinions would eventually start to converge around the same repeated estimations.

Since then, the Delphi method has been deployed in a wide range of settings, including business, government, medicine, and science. 2  While there is great variation in how the technique is used, the general structure of Estimate-Talk-Estimate defines the Delphi method. In policy-making, the Policy Delphi 3  is used to generate the most divergent political views on how a major policy issue should be addressed. It’s also been influential in the development of direct democracy and stakeholder engagement, as policymakers increasingly try to involve a wide range of experts in their decision-making.

That said, the Delphi method was not the first technique to advocate for the leveraging of groups in decision-making. Scientists and mathematicians had long observed the benefits of using groups instead of individuals to make decisions. In 1907, Francis Galton (a cousin of Charles Darwin) observed how the average of all the entries in a county fair ‘guess the weight of the ox’ competition proved incredibly accurate – more so than the guesses of most individuals, even farmers and so-called cattle experts. 4  The concept was developed and is known today  as the  Wisdom of Crowds.

The organisation behind the Delphi method. RAND is a public policy think tank headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Norman Dalkey and Olaf Helmer led the Delphi method project within RAND, initially with the aim of fostering collaboration amongst military experts.

James Surowiecki

American journalist and former staff writer at  The   New Yorker . Surowiecki is best known for his 2004 book entitled  The wisdom of crowds: why the many are smarter than the few and how collective wisdom shapes business, economies, societies, and nations . He argues that in most circumstances, large groups show more intelligence and generate better decisions than individuals.

Consequences

Once declassified by the US government, the Delphi method rose in prominence and was adopted by several fields. By 1980, a range of papers and books on the subject had been published, especially in the social sciences and public policy.

In recent years, the Delphi method has developed from its initial application as a forecasting tool, to wider use in qualitative research and stakeholder consultation. Scaled-down formats appear in business settings today; for example, during face-to-face meetings during which participants give initial opinions, offer feedback to the group, and then re-confirm their final viewpoints. This variation is sometimes used as an alternative to brainstorming in strategy meetings.

Other variations include the Policy Delphi 3 , which seeks to consult the most extreme opinions around an important public issue, giving governments an idea of some arguments they need to consider when drafting new policy. An example of this is the ‘Citizen Assembly’ consultation tool that’s been successfully deployed in countries like Canada, Ireland and the Netherlands, amongst others. 6

Finally, the Argument Delphi 7  is more process-driven, used to foster continued discussion and evaluate relevant arguments surrounding a topic, instead of aiming for consensus. Through its many variations and use in more and more fields, the Delphi method remains more influential now than ever.

Controversies

The main argument against the Delphi method is that it strips group-decision making of the group context. Real-time discussion and debate doesn’t happen because experts give their opinions and receive feedback without interacting with the other members of the panel. The influence of contextual factors that come with being in a group – for example, social pressure -is not as prominent  in the Delphi method as in conventional group decision-making (committees or meetings). Experts don’t get the opportunity to debate with one another because the Delphi method calls for ‘controlled feedback’, which is generally not interactive. 8

Another problem arises when participants either misunderstand the questions being asked, or the items used in a questionnaire invoke a variety of interpretations. Open-ended questions are a particular challenge here, because they make it difficult for facilitators to identify patterns in opinions. Challenges also arise when the ‘experts’ involved possess varying levels of expertise. Unfortunately, the Delphi method does not account for psychological forces such as the imposter syndrome, or the role of cognitive  biases .

Case Studies

United states air corps: cold war scenario forecasting.

As we’ve mentioned, the Delphi method was initially developed for the US Air Corps in an effort to predict the likelihood of Soviet attacks during the Cold War. Dalkey, Helmer and their team at RAND Corporation (known as Project RAND at the time) sought to use expert advice to predict how the Soviets would select and attack US military targets. They were specifically looking for estimations of the number of atomic missiles that the Soviets would be expected to use in their attacks, and the impact these would have on US resources. In essence, they were trying to predict how Soviet military strategists would act towards the US in the future.

To do this, the team at RAND Corporation  involved a range of experts and collected their estimations through what became the Delphi method. Their goal was to  “collect the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts by a series of intensive questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback.’ ’ 2

Healthcare – Clinical Guidelines

The Delphi method has proven to be particularly useful in the development of clinical guidelines for certain diseases and illnesses. What’s especially beneficial is that it allows for a broad range of expert opinions to be considered; in fact, most clinical research has evolved to extend this ‘expert’ title to patients, caregivers, (e.g. parents) and patient advocacy groups. As Natalie Street from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention observes,  “Clinicians are experts, but the patients with the disease are also experts. They’re the ones living with it on a daily basis.”   9  The anonymity of the Delphi method allows patients to share their voice, without fear of being challenged, or at worst, ridiculed, by medical experts. Patients and caregivers  can offer their opinions in a controlled environment, and the chance of the  Reactive Devaluation Bias  occurring is much lower. Finally, the very fact that patients are involved in the consultation phase greatly increases the likelihood that they will follow the guidelines themselves (see:  Ikea effect . )

Related TDL resources

Group Decision Making: How to Be Effective and Efficient

Yasmine Kalkstein  discusses how groups can avoid groupthink and make meetings more effective and efficient.

COVID-19 and the Science of Risk Perception

How the ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ can improve fact-checking around COVID-19 risk.

• RAND Corp. (2021). Delphi Method. Retrieved 11 February 2021, from  https://www.rand.org/topics/delphi-method.html
• Gupta, U. G., & Clarke, R. E. (1996). Theory and applications of the Delphi technique: A bibliography (1975–1994).  Technological forecasting and social change ,  53 (2), 185-211.
• Franklin, K. K., & Hart, J. K. (2007). Idea generation and exploration: Benefits and limitations of the policy Delphi research method.  Innovative Higher Education ,  31 (4), 237-246.
• The Real Wisdom of the Crowds. (2021). Retrieved 11 February 2021, from https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/phenomena/2013/01/31/the-real-wisdom-of-the-crowds/
• Surowiecki, J. (2005).  The wisdom of crowds . Anchor.
• Beekers, E. (2021). Are citizens’ assemblies the future of participation? – CitizenLab’s Blog. Retrieved 15 March 2021, from https://www.citizenlab.co/blog/civic-engagement/are-citizens-assemblies-the-future-of-participation/
• Mukherjee, N., Huge, J., Sutherland, W. J., McNeill, J., Van Opstal, M., Dahdouh‐Guebas, F., & Koedam, N. (2015). The Delphi technique in ecology and biological conservation: applications and guidelines.  Methods in Ecology and Evolution ,  6 (9), 1097-1109.
• Rowe, G., & Wright, G. (1999). The Delphi technique as a forecasting tool: issues and analysis. International journal of forecasting, 15(4), 353-375.
• RAND Corporation. (2021). Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines. Retrieved 11 February 2021, from https://www.rand.org/blog/rand-review/2019/12/giving-patients-a-voice-in-medical-guidelines.html

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How Is the Delphi Technique Used in Project Management?

April 11, 2022 - 7 min read

It’s no secret that project management requires decision-making, planning , and shared understanding amongst stakeholders, but sometimes that’s easier said than done. 

When it comes to reaching a consensus during a project , it can feel impossible. But what if there was a technique you could use to help solve the impossible?

That’s where the Delphi Technique comes in. We’ve rounded up the basics of the Delphi Technique, how it applies in project management, and the benefits and drawbacks of using it. 

What is the Delphi Technique?

According to the Project Management Institute (PMI) , the Delphi Technique was developed in the 1960s due to changing technological environments and the impact this had on assessing and forecasting the future. It is also referred as the Delphi Method or Delphi Studies.

To put it simply, the Delphi Technique is used to make decisions about complex issues based on individual opinions. In this method, a group of experts writes down and shares their thoughts about a problem with a facilitator. Each expert’s view is compiled into a summary report by the facilitator. 

The experts then review the information and provide updated predictions to the facilitator to produce a new report. This process continues with systematic reviews until participants reach a consensus or agreement on the topic.  

How to use the Delphi Technique

Sounds simple, doesn’t it? Here’s a rundown of how to use the Delphi Technique: 

• Determine the problem you want to solve. What is the problem you are trying to solve? Be as clear and specific as possible. Understanding the issue at hand will inform who the experts are.
• Identify and engage your panel of experts. Now that you know what you’re trying to accomplish or answer, you should have a good idea of who you need to include in the process.
• Choose a facilitator to manage the process. Select a neutral person who has enough understanding of the topic to understand the conversations and compile results without bias.
• Start the process. Use questionnaires and surveys to gain an understanding of experts’ views and consolidate information.
• Create a summary report. Once you’ve gathered the group’s responses, you should remove irrelevant information and consolidate the results. Circulate the report back to the group to contemplate their peers’ ideas before the next round of questioning.
• Ask more questions, summarize the results, and repeat. Cycle through as many rounds of questionnaires and surveys as you need until a consensus emerges. In between, continue to create anonymized reports to share back with the structured group to use in their considerations.
• Reach consensus and find the way forward. Once your group of experts reaches an agreement, you should analyze the results and create plans to address future risks and opportunities accordingly. 

The Delphi Technique isn’t an exact science — it’s a process. You might need only two rounds of questionnaires to reach a consensus for more minor problems but upwards of 10 rounds for more complex ones. Regardless, keep the desired goal in mind: achieving agreement based upon expert viewpoints and guidance.

Delphi Technique in project management

Sure, reaching consensus is essential in projects, but where exactly do we see the Delphi Technique used in project management? The method is commonly used for both scope management and risk management . 

Using the Delphi Technique for scope management is valuable because it can help stakeholders reach an agreement on the scope of any given project. This helps eliminate big reasons for project failure , such as lack of clear requirements and inadequate planning.

For risk management, the Delphi Technique can help project teams predict and better prepare for future risks . That’s what the method was created to do in the first place: to help forecast for the future and get ahead of potential issues.

Delphi Technique examples

You’re probably getting a grasp of using the Delphi Technique in projects, but let’s run through a quick example related to scope management. 

Let’s say your business is kicking off a multi-phase project . You are going to implement a Project Management Office (PMO) and a customized project management methodology across your organization. 

Your experts, or key stakeholders, will likely have different views on what’s needed. They might also want other elements from the PMO , such as resource allocation , a template library, or project reporting assistance. 

You would use the Delphi Technique to reach a consensus on the scope of the PMO implementation as the initial phase of the project and then prioritize the elements of the following phases. 

The advantages of using the Delphi method

Successful projects require stakeholders and project teams to be on the same page, and that’s what the Delphi method can do for you. Here are the advantages of the Delphi Technique : 

• There’s potential to meet consensus rapidly. Have you ever been in a project meeting and needed to make a decision quickly but couldn’t get everyone in the room to agree? It happens to all of us. The Delphi Technique can help you achieve consensus and do it quickly, depending on the issue at hand.
• Less “groupthink” and more individual contributions. Sharing opinions, especially in a professional setting, can be challenging, particularly when there are a couple of dominant speakers in the room. One major perk of this method is that anonymized answers allow everyone to express and share their opinions freely.
• It’s cheap and quick to conduct. It’s relatively easy and inexpensive to use the Delphi Technique. You don’t need a lot of fancy tools or expensive materials to achieve results — just some time and a way to write down and compile ideas.

The drawbacks of using the Delphi analysis

As with any technique, you might experience some challenges with the Delphi Technique along the way. 

One key challenge: While it’s possible that you can achieve consensus quickly, it could be a long and tedious process to reach an agreement. If multiple rounds of questionnaires are required before your group hits consensus, you could fall behind schedule and put your project at risk. 

Another hurdle is that the technique is designed to help you reach an expert consensus , but just because your group of experts agrees doesn’t necessarily mean you’ve found the best or the right way to solve a problem. Don’t be mistaken – level-setting opinions and getting everyone on the same page is a huge win, but it’s worth noting the difference between consensus and identifying the best possible solution. 

Using Wrike for the Delphi Technique 

As we mentioned, you don’t need any fancy tools or a big budget if you want to use the Delphi Technique. However, once you’ve reached a consensus about a particular problem related to a project, a project management tool may come in handy to help ensure you follow through with what all experts have agreed upon.

With Wrike, you can follow up on action items from your Delphi method analyses and put together full project schedules . The Delphi Technique can help you determine the next steps of a project, and Wrike will help ensure you stay on track to achieve those next steps without fail. 

Ready? Get started today with a free trial of Wrike .

Kat Boogaard

Kat is a Midwest-based contributing writer. She covers topics related to careers, self-development, and the freelance life. She is also a columnist for Inc., writes for The Muse, is Career Editor for The Everygirl, and a contributor all over the web.

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A Quick Guide to The Linear Scheduling Method

A linear schedule is a project management tool used to present a schedule in two dimensions, such as time and distance. This is normally used for projects with linear construction properties or repetitive tasks, such as the construction of roads, bridges, and railways.  In this article, we will explain what the linear scheduling method is, how it benefits projects, and how to execute it. Keep reading to discover linear scheduling examples and tools you can use to perfect your next project plans. Linear scheduling method explained The linear scheduling method is a process for developing project schedules that take into account the various elements of a work that are linear, continuous, or repeated. Most commonly used in construction management and engineering, the quantity of work performed on a project is used to determine the duration of a work relationship and the work rates for each crew member. Although the term “linear scheduling” is often used to describe the steps involved in preparing linear schedules, it can also be referred to as the development of a graphical representation of a project schedule. You may also hear the linear scheduling method referred to as “time chainage” or “line-of-balance”.  The various elements of the linear schedule are represented on a grid with coordinates that define when and where the work begins and finishes. A range of display methods is also used to present the varying activities in different formats. What benefits does a linear schedule provide to a project manager? The linear scheduling method is simple. Not only is it easier to read, but it’s also easier to organize.  It’s helpful for communication. Contractors, stakeholders, and clients can understand your project plans from this information alone. 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Risk vs Issue: Everything You Need to Know

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How to Conduct Pareto Analysis Using Pareto Charts

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Here are some of the many ways it can be used: Visually represent project issues to find which have the greatest impact Communicate priority levels to stakeholders  Isolate individual process hiccups so that they can be better understood  Find the most impactful problems and eliminate them before they cause issues  Reallocate workloads so that team members companywide are maximizing their impact and productivity  When to use a Pareto chart in project management A Pareto chart is a tool that many people use to analyze different types of problems. It can also identify the most significant issues in a process. In project management, this means everything from big-picture project phases to individual task workflows.  When roadblocks come up, managers can use the Pareto analysis to quickly identify what is causing bottlenecks or delays. From there, they can use their project management tool to delegate troubleshooting, adjust task lists, or shift priorities without interrupting the entire project.  In addition to making on-the-fly decisions based on real evidence possible, Pareto charts can be used in project management for post-project analysis for both PMOs and stakeholders. Teams can learn from each other and what went wrong in projects with data clearly laid out in this way. In the future, they’ll be able to replicate their successes and mitigate failures.  Stakeholders can easily pinpoint areas of investment that worked out and learn more about how this project was managed so they can feel good about the outcome. In particularly successful works, they’ll be able to see how little interference the project encountered along the way. Or they can see how well the team managed issues that did arise.  This persuasive tactic allows them to feel great about providing repeat business or, at the very least, enrich their understanding of key projects related to their goals for future reference.  How to calculate Pareto analysis The simplest formula for calculating a Pareto analysis is as follows:  [Your total unit of measurement per item, e.g., number of occurrences, hours, cost, etc.] / [the grand total of all items] x 100%  Use this formula for each category. Keep in mind that each result should be a percentage. Afterward, put them in order from highest to lowest before inputting them into your chart-making software.  How to create a Pareto chart Step 1: Collect your data A minimum of 30 data points is best for an accurate picture of the project as a whole.  Step 2: Create a frequency table Use the following headers in this order:  Issue Type Number of Occurrences (listed in descending order) Note: Some programs will automatically generate a Pareto chart for you once you’ve added the number of occurrences or frequency for each issue category.  The rest of your headers may be calculated for you, again depending on the program you’re using:  Cumulative Total  Cumulative Percentage  80% Cut Off Step 3: Label your chart Keep it simple. You can never go wrong with “Types of Project Errors.” Freel free to add a single sentence description that includes the time period of your measurement and any other details that are important to the people you’ll be sharing it with.  Step 4: Clearly label the Y-axis Frequency, total number of occurrences, or even price all work well here. Use whichever value best represents your data set or makes the most sense to you as a manager.  Step 5: Note the categories on the X-axis These should match the Issue Types you first listed in your frequency table.  Step 6: Interpret the chart  Again, the software you use should fill in the other components of the chart, including the bars, lines, and cut-off. From there, you can get to work analyzing the results.  The higher the bars are, the more of an impact they are having on your project.  You’ll see percentages listed on the right-hand side of the chart across from frequency. They should be listed from 100% and counted down in increments of 10 to the bottom. Any bars that cross the 80% line should be considered a top priority for problem-solving.  Pareto chart example This Pareto chart example was created by Clinical Excellence Commission and thoughtfully illustrates the key areas of focus project managers should be aware of.  The areas marked in red and bold are the spaces project managers should focus on when conducting their analysis.  We can also see that the categories on the bottom are great examples of types of medication errors. But project managers may use groupings such as scope creep, resource management, or communication to define a variety of issues that may come up.  The most important line on this graph is the green 80% cut-off, which symbolizes the Pareto principle. Any bar that reaches above that line should be considered the most important issue. In the above chart, that would be “dose missed” at 92% and “wrong time” at 83%. Although “wrong drug” clocks in at 76%, it’s not considered nearly as important as the first two.  For the next steps, the project manager in this particular example would likely solve the issues above the 80% line first before moving on to the next highest scoring category. Alternatively, they could choose to solve the above-the-line problems, then create a new Pareto chart and see if the values have changed. It’s also possible that solving the highest priority issues may fix less pressing issues on your chart down the road as a byproduct.  How Pareto chart analysis can improve your project In general, the Pareto chart helps project managers and team leaders identify the causes of various problems that are having the biggest impact on their work. By figuring out what they are, managers can take the necessary steps to solve them. It’s also easier to determine task and even project or goal prioritization with a chart like this.  If you’re working with third-party partners or stakeholders, the visual aspects of Pareto charts make them easy to understand and interpret. Not only is this highly effective for communicating with non-experts, but it’s also highly persuasive.  How to interpret Pareto analysis with Wrike So you’ve made your Pareto charts and conducted your analysis. Now what? Put your plan into action with Wrike.  Wrike is a project management solution that makes project plans manageable, efficient, and crystal clear. Now that you know what’s going wrong, you can easily add actionable next steps to your project plans without missing a beat.  Start by adding a detailed task to your project. Add a description, deadline, and task owner. Wrike also allows you to see the workload of individual team members across all active projects so you can double-check they’re available before assigning it.  You can also use Wrike’s custom reporting features to identify issue categories for your Pareto chart. Dissect active and past tasks to find the biggest areas in need of improvement during individual project phases or projects as a whole.  In addition to Pareto charts, Wrike also offers Gantt charts and PERT charts that can improve productivity.  A Gantt chart is a bar chart that shows the various tasks and deadlines for a project. It's a great tool for managing time and improving efficiency.  A PERT chart is a network diagram that shows all the project tasks in separate containers. The boxes that make up the PERT chart are organized with arrows to represent the time needed to complete the task. Combining the results of your Pareto, Gantt, and PERT charts will help you turbocharge your project troubleshooting plans and may even prevent future issues too.  Ready to get the biggest results from the least amount of effort? Get started with Wrike’s two-week free trial. 

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An In-Depth Look at the Delphi Method: Techniques, Studies, and Forecasts

The Delphi method is a widely used and effective forecasting technique that utilizes the knowledge of a panel of experts. In this comprehensive guide, we will examine how the Delphi method works, look at examples of real-world Delphi studies, and explore why this qualitative approach is so useful for generating forecasts and consensus.

The Delphi method allows researchers to systematically collect and aggregate informed opinions from subject matter experts on topics where there is incomplete or imperfect information. By surveying experts through multiple rounds of questionnaires and controlled feedback, researchers can arrive at a credible group consensus forecast or judgement. Read on to learn more about the origins, processes, applications, and strengths of the Delphi technique.

What is the Delphi Method and How Does it Work?

The Delphi method originated in the 1950s and 1960s by Olaf Helmer and Norman Dalkey at the RAND Corporation as a forecasting technique to predict likely future scenarios. It was originally used to forecast likely outcomes and impacts of technology and science for military purposes.

The name Delphi refers to the Oracle of Delphi in Greek mythology, representing a source of wise counsel. The Delphi method is based on the principle that group opinion is more valid than individual opinion. It is a qualitative, iterative process used to survey and collect the judgements of experts on a particular topic through a series of questionnaires and controlled feedback.

The key characteristics that define the Delphi method include:

Structured information flow: The process is structured into different rounds of questionnaires or surveys where information is fed back to panelists between each round.

Regular participant feedback: Panelists complete multiple rounds of questionnaires, receiving controlled feedback between each round that includes statistical representation of the group response.

Anonymity of participants: Panelists responses are anonymous to each other to avoid bias and groupthink.

-aggregation of group opinion: The objective is to arrive at a consensus or aggregation of group judgement.

The Delphi process typically involves these key steps:

Select a facilitator: The facilitator designs the questionnaires, recruits experts, controls the feedback between rounds, and moderates the process.

Recruit experts: Researchers identify and select experts who have deep knowledge and experience with the topic area. Panel sizes vary but often range from 10 to 50 experts.

Design the questionnaire: The facilitator develops open-ended questions to explore the topic and achieve the objectives.

Test and revise the questionnaire: The questionnaire is piloted before full implementation to improve questions.

Distribute initial questionnaire: Experts complete the first round questionnaire, answering questions anonymously.

Analyze first responses: The facilitator reviews, summarizes and groups the first round responses.

Develop new questionnaire: Using the responses, a new questionnaire is designed for the second round.

Distribute second questionnaire: Experts fill in the second questionnaire, rating and revising their answers in light of the group feedback.

Analyze second responses: Steps 6-8 are repeated over additional questionnaire rounds until consensus starts to emerge.

Finalize results: The facilitator analyzes the data to produce final results and areas of consensus.

The number of rounds used can vary depending on the scope and complexity of the issue, but commonly ranges from 3 to 5 rounds. Rounds continue until a satisfactory level of consensus is reached amongst the experts.

Examples of the Delphi Method in Practice

Since its inception, the Delphi method has been applied extensively across a diverse range of fields. It is a popular technique used in social policy and public health research, but has also been used for business forecasting, determining priorities, scenario planning, and in other contexts where expert consensus is needed. Here are some examples of how the Delphi technique has been utilized:

Healthcare policy and clinical practice guidelines - The Delphi method is commonly used in health contexts. For instance, it has been applied to develop clinical practice guidelines and care standards in areas lacking consensus amongst clinicians.

Business and technology forecasting - Corporations have applied the Delphi method to forecast sales, determine investment priorities, or predict industry trends and evolution of technologies.

Education research - In education, it has been used to identify and rank pressing issues and challenges facing schools and universities.

Environmental impact analysis - Researchers have leveraged the Delphi technique to better understand potential future environmental impacts of policies and human activities.

Scenario planning - Organizations have used the Delphi process as an input to scenario planning exercises to prepare for multiple plausible futures.

Determining research priorities - The Delphi method helpsfunding agencies to determine high priority areas for research investment.

Program planning and needs assessment - Nonprofits and government agencies have applied the Delphi process for program planning and identifying community needs.

Overall, the Delphi method has proven highly versatile and has been adapted to meet the forecasting and estimation needs of many fields. Next, we will look at some specific real-world examples of Delphi studies.

Real-World Examples of Delphi Studies

To understand how the Delphi technique is applied, it is helpful to look at examples of actual studies:

Healthcare Policy Example

A 2014 study published in BMC Health Services Research aimed to generate consensus and develop a framework amongst stakeholders for community-based health programming in Canada. A panel of 18 experts participated in a three round Delphi study. Analysis of responses revealed consensus on 25 core elements for community program planning, including recommendations related to partnerships, target populations, cultural adaptation and evaluation. The resulting framework provides evidence-based guidance for developing localized community health programs.

Education Example

Researchers applied the Delphi method to identify and rank the biggest challenges facing higher education academic libraries in the next 5-15 years. A panel of 56 library deans and directors participated in four rounds of questionnaires. The study revealed consensus on the top five issues: budgetary constraints, increased diversity, rising costs, digitalization, and participation in scholarly communication. The results help library leadership prioritize strategic initiatives.

Long-Range Forecasting Example

A classic example is a series of Delphi studies conducted by the Rand Corporation in the 1950s forecasting likely scientific and technological developments over the next 50 years. For instance, a study on future electronic computers predicted applications including artificial intelligence, use in education, computer programming languages, and networking—anticipating many developments long before they occurred.

Business Example

A consulting firm conducted a Delphi study to help an agricultural company forecast corn and soybean yields over the next decade. They surveyed a panel of 25 leading experts in corn and soybean production, economics, and climate science over four rounds. The findings provided probabilities for different yield scenarios, helping the company anticipate future supply conditions and make strategic plans.

Benefits and Advantages of Using the Delphi Method

There are several key advantages that make the Delphi method a useful and popular forecasting and consensus-building approach across domains:

Leverages collective wisdom from experts - The Delphi technique allows researchers to tap into the insights of a panel of intelligent specialists rather than just one or two people.

Avoids groupthink - The anonymity of responses avoids groupthink and domination of views by certain personalities that can bias conventional group discussions.

Structured process - The controlled, multi-round process produces more thoughtful, nuanced perspectives than one-off surveys or discussions.

Well-suited for complex, ambiguous topics - Delphi is ideal for issues where there are no definitive answers or that require subjective judgements from experts.

Flexibility - Researchers have flexibility to modify and adapt the process based on the topic and objectives.

Cost-effectiveness - It provides rich qualitative data at a lower cost than in-person workshops or conferences.

Consensus - Delphi studies work toward building agreement on the problem or questions at hand.

Stability of group opinion - Opinions generated through the iterative process tend to be stable and consistent.

For issues that require synthesizing informed judgements or forecasting complex trends, the Delphi method is a go-to technique. The structured approach makes it more rigorous than casual polling or basic surveys. Next we will look at some limitations.

Limitations and Critiques of the Delphi Method

While the Delphi method has many benefits for gathering expert consensus, there are also some inherent limitations to consider:

Time-intensive process - The multi-round process requires significant time and sustained engagement from experts. Panelist attrition can also be an issue.

Resource intensive - The process demands considerable effort from facilitators in questionnaire design, distribution, analysis and coordination.

No definitive answers - The technique does not produce objectively "correct" answers, but rather collective subjective judgements.

Potential bias - Results can be swayed by how information is presented by facilitators or how panels are selected.

Conformity - Pressure to conform to group judgments may lead some experts to modify their views.

Methodological issues - There are inconsistencies in how Delphi studies are applied and reported.

Questionable reliability - The reliability of results has been scrutinized, as results can differ based on the composition of the expert panel.

While limitations exist, researchers contend the Delphi method remains a valuable tool when used appropriately. It offers a structured approach to gleaning insights from experts when no definitive data exists on complex, ambiguous topics.

Tips for Applying the Delphi Method

When preparing to undertake a Delphi study, consider these tips:

Clearly define the purpose and objectives early when designing the study. This guides development of research questions.

Take time to thoughtfully select panelists - the quality of experts greatly influences the credibility of results. Seek heterogeneity and diversity.

Keep questionnaires concise and focused. Avoid overly broad or double-barreled questions.

Analyze and summarize the group response between each round so experts can reassess their judgements.

Monitor response rates at each round to maximize participation. Follow up promptly with non-responders.

Use statistical analysis techniques to assess consensus between rounds. Define consensus criteria upfront.

Document methodological details and decisions to support reliability.

Have a plan upfront for disseminating results and applying findings from the study.

The Future of the Delphi Method

Some researchers have explored modifications and technological enhancements to the Delphi method aimed at improving its reliability and effectiveness. Some examples include:

Employing real-time Delphi methods where experts interact anonymously via web-based platforms and interfaces. This allows for faster turnaround between rounds.

Combining Delphi with prediction markets where panelists can trade predictions on online marketplaces. Market prices are interpreted as probabilities.

Using algorithmic facilitation to automate parts of the process like sentiment analysis and clustering to support human facilitators.

Leveraging artificial intelligence to potentially serve as virtual experts on panels or assist with parts of the process.

While adoption of these kinds of technological modifications is still relatively limited, researchers continue seeking ways to refine and improve the flexibility, rigor and reliability of the Delphi method.

Conclusion and Key Takeaways

In summary, key points to remember about the Delphi method:

It is a flexible, qualitative forecasting technique relying on expert consensus gained through multiple rounds of questionnaires and controlled feedback.

Originated in the 1950s-60s by the RAND Corporation for technological forecasting but has expanded to diverse applications.

Key strengths are leveraging collective wisdom while avoiding groupthink, and providing more thoughtful data than basic surveys.

Limitations include intensive process, conformity pressures, and methodological inconsistencies.

Proper panel selection, clear procedures, statistical analysis, and consensus definition help maximizing the rigor and reliability of findings.

Technological enhancements like real-time feedback, algorithms, and AI may refine Delphi methods in the future.

Overall, the Delphi technique remains a valuable tool for forecasting, estimating, and building consensus on complex topics through expert judgement.

The Delphi method provides a structured communication process to generate credible qualitative data through expert consensus. With its versatility across fields and rigorous application, the Delphi technique will continue serving an important role where quantitative modelling and historical data are not available or adequate. This comprehensive overview covers key aspects of the Delphi method - from its origins to real-world applications through to future directions.

The Delphi Method

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Researchers in Social Sciences and Global Public Health have found the Delphi method to be a successful tool for identifying and prioritizing issues in decision-making. The Delphi method is a systematic technique for gathering information about a topic by asking a group of subject matter experts a series of questions. The Delphi method involves experts who are knowledgeable about a certain subject so that they can forecast outcomes for future research, predict the likelihood of an event, or reach a consensus on certain topics. While the Delphi method is not an ideal tool for all research within the social sciences and global public health, it can be adapted to address a range of issues in a variety of disciplines and research areas. The ensuing chapter discusses the characteristics of the Delphi method, including criticisms, steps for conducting a Delphi study, its uses as well as highlighting certain advantages and disadvantages.

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Ismail, G., Taliep, N. (2023). The Delphi Method. In: Liamputtong, P. (eds) Handbook of Social Sciences and Global Public Health. Springer, Cham. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-96778-9_66-1

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Delphi Technique a Step-by-Step Guide

By Mayghan Dolmy

As a project manager, it is important to think about what future events may impact your projects. These events may be positive or negative, so understanding them allows you to prepare, and put plans in place to deal with them. But how can you forecast the future with any degree of certainty? The Delphi Technique can help.

The Delphi Technique is a method used to estimate the likelihood and outcome of future events. A group of experts exchange views, and each independently gives estimates and assumptions to a facilitator who reviews the data and issues a summary report.

The group members discuss and review the summary report, and give updated forecasts to the facilitator, who again reviews the material and issues a second report. This process continues until all participants reach a consensus.

The experts at each round have a full record of what forecasts other experts have made, but they do not know who made which forecast. Anonymity allows the experts to express their opinions freely, encourages openness and avoids admitting errors by revising earlier forecasts.

This article looks at how to run a Delphi session. On completion of this guide, you will be able to run a session enabling you to predict future events and their likely impact on your projects.

The technique is an iterative process, and first aims to get a broad range of opinions from the group of experts. The results of the first round of questions, when summarised, provide the basis for the second round of questions. Results from the second round of questions feed into the third and final round.

The aim is to clarify and expand on issues, identify areas of agreement or disagreement and begin to find consensus.

Step 1: Choose a Facilitator

The first step is to choose your facilitator. You may wish to take on this role yourself, or find a neutral person within your organisation. It is useful to have someone that is familiar with research and data collection.

Step 2: Identify Your Experts

The Delphi technique relies on a panel of experts. This panel may be your project team, including the customer, or other experts from within your organisation or industry. An expert is, any individual with relevant knowledge and experience of a particular topic. ¹

Step 3: Define the Problem

What is the problem or issue you are seeking to understand? The experts need to know what problem they are commenting on, so ensure you provide a precise and comprehensive definition.

Step 4: Round One Questions

Ask general questions to gain a broad understanding of the experts view on future events. The questions may go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Collate and summarise the responses, removing any irrelevant material and looking for common viewpoints.

Step 5: Round Two Questions

Based on the answers to the first questions, the next questions should delve deeper into the topic to clarify specific issues. These questions may also go out in the form of a questionnaire or survey. Again, collate and summarise the results, removing any irrelevant material and look for the common ground. Remember, we are seeking to build consensus.

Step 6: Round Three Questions

The final questionnaire aims to focus on supporting decision making. Hone in on the areas of agreement. What is it the experts are all agreed upon?

You may wish to have more than three rounds of questioning to reach a closer consensus.

Step 7: Act on Your Findings

After this round of questions, your experts will have, we hope, reached a consensus and you will have a view of future events. Analyse the findings and put plans in place to deal with future risks and opportunities to your project.

Use the Delphi Technique for creating Work Breakdown Structures, identifying risks and opportunities, compiling lessons learned and anytime you would usually conduct a brainstorming session.

Predicting the future is not an exact science, but the Delphi Technique can help you understand the likelihood of future events and what impact they may have on your project.

Maygan Dolmy, - Human Resources Consultant at Rite Hire, UK - London, United Kingdom - https://www.linkedin.com/in/maygan-dolmy-a8a1971a9/ The opinions expressed in this publication are those of the authors. They do not purport to reflect the opinions or views of the HRM Leaders or its members.

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How to Use the Delphi Technique

PMI-RMP Exam Prep

•  Minute Read

In today's article, I'll test your understanding of the Delphi Technique. We'll also explore the technique, when you might wish to use it, and how to facilitate this process.

Which of the following statements describes the Delphi Technique most correctly? The Delphi Technique is used:

A. In face to face meetings when experts need to share their opinions.

B. To minimize groupthink and to reach consensus through anonymous expert input.

C. When groups need to make decisions quickly, as in a vote.

D. To create virtual mind maps.

Answer:  B

A common problem in decision-making is groupthink. A powerful, dominating individual drives the project decisions. One way to counter groupthink is to reach a consensus by asking for input anonymously using the Delphi Technique. This technique may also be used to brainstorm and capture ideas.

What is the Delphi Technique?

Project managers can gather information through anonymous surveys and questionnaires. Project managers share the results after each round. The process continues until a decision is made .

When to Use the Delphi Technique

Need to brainstorm ideas ? Perhaps you want to identify risks related to your project schedule. Or you want to gather weaknesses of a business process. You can use the Delphi Technique in countless ways.

How to Facilitate the Delphi Technique

So, how do you actually facilitate this process? There are many ways to use this technique, but here's an example of identifying and analyzing risks:

• Identify a facilitator.
• Identify the experts.
• The facilitator creates and distributes an online survey asking the experts to identify risks.
• Facilitator distributes a list of 7 identified risks and asks the experts to force rank the risks from highest (1) to lowest (7).
• Facilitator compiles and shares the results with the experts as a list of the risks from highest (lowest total) to lowest (highest total).
• The experts discuss the results to determine if any adjustments are needed.

Notes:  

• In this example, we used the Forced Ranking Technique. However, you may use any ranking/prioritization technique you desire. For example, you could simply have the experts rank each risk as low, medium, or high.
• When you ask participants to force rank a list, individuals prioritize the list in order one after another from 1 to the highest number (7 in this example). The number 1 indicates the most significant risk.
• In this example, the Facilitator distributed a list of 7 identified risks. This could be any number of risks. However, the Forced Ranking Technique works best with 10 or fewer items.

Forced Ranking Example

Note: The lowest total indicates the most significant risk. Therefore Requirement #5 matters most, followed by Requirement #2, and so forth.

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By Denis G.

The Delphi Technique | Method

In this article:

When groups come together to make decisions, very often group dynamics can result in the team making the wrong decision because they fall into the trap of groupthink . Groupthink is essentially a type of behavior which can be exhibited by groups whereby they reach a perceived consensus on the majority view, without critically thinking or testing alternative hypothesis. Groupthink is particularly likely to occur in cohesive groups, groups with a directional leader, and groups working in isolation from outside information.

Groupthink can exist even in small teams, but when you want to reach consensus amongst a very large group (100s or even 1000s of people) yet more complexity is introduced. For one thing it can simply be impossible to get everyone into the same room. As examples, think about how you would go about getting an entire political party to reach consensus on the top 3 policies for the party to champion? Or even how you would get a large program team or project team to reach consensus on the 3 biggest market threats facing the success of the program?

Of course, you could argue that you don’t need to reach consensus in these examples, after all, a political party has a leader to make decisions, and a company has a CEO. But if you want to avoid the problems of group dynamics and groupthink, and the decision or problem is large enough, then it makes sense to consult with the experts within your organization and beyond to try to ensure that the best available decision is made. This is where the Delphi Method comes in.

Origins of the Delphi Technique

The Delphi Technique has its origins in the Cold War. The original “Project Delphi” was developed by the RAND Corporation and funded by the US Air Force to attempt to reach a consensus view on the impact of technological advances on warfare. Prior to Project Delphi other methods had been trialled such as trend extrapolation and quantitative models, but their shortcomings became quickly apparent.

The Delphi Process

Before we go into the general steps, it should be pointed out that the Delphi Model is a set (or family) of techniques, rather than one single clearly understood set of steps. Having said that, the key features of the Delphi Model are:

• A Facilitator : Provides the participants with initial questionnaires. Collects answers to these questionnaires and comments. The facilitator then filters out irrelevant information. This process avoids groupthink and the problems associated with group dynamics. The facilitator then creates the questionnaires for the second round and sends them to the participants.
• A series of information collection rounds : Here, participants can change their previous forecasts anonymously, see new information which is coming from other participants, and comment on this. In face to face meetings people tend to stick to their originally stated opinion to avoid loosing face, but with the Delphi Method they can change their mind at any moment.
• Participant anonymity : It is normal for participants to remain anonymous at all stages to enable honest opinions to come through the process.

The Delphi Technique can be difficult to understand from these three components alone, but a simple example should help clarify how it works.

Delphi Technique Example

Suppose we are a project manager or program manager and want to canvas opinion and then reach a consensus on how our product can be the most successful product in the marketplace. We decide we’re going to use the Delphi Method and that we’re going to invite the top 100 people within the organization to participate. We construct our questionnaire as follows, asking participants to rate each of the following options to achieve our goal:

• Improve development team productivity
• Provide tiered product pricing
• Increase the size of the sales team
• Respond rapidly to customer feedback
• Other … this option allows the participants to add their own ideas

Because there are 5 questions we allow people to assign points between 5-1 to each option, with 5 being the most important and 1 being the least. The diagram below shows a snapshot of how our participants might answer the questionnaire. I’ve included participant names in this example for the sake of clarity, but normally participants would remain anonymous.

Note that two of the participants commented that the best way to have the most successful product would be to expand into China, this is why you see the two 5 scores against the Other option. Ignore the Mean and Standard Deviation for now – we will examine those shortly. The facilitator collates the answers and resends resends the questionnaire (plus previous answers) to include the China option and also any pertinent comments from the participants. The next round of questions may have been responded to as follows:

We repeat this process of receiving feedback and sending out questionnaires until an agreed number of rounds have been completed, or the standard deviations are very low. Low standard deviations will tell us that we have a low variance for each particular item in the list. In our example above we can see that there is low variance for the “Launch in China” option, telling us that most people are in agreement as to how well this option will help us achieve our goal.

Once we get to the stage where we have low variance, we can then pick the items with the highest mean values to focus our effort on, to either repeat the process until we get consensus, or to discuss until we get consensus. The items in the list with the highest mean values will be those which the group of participants believes are the most crucial to ensuring the success of the organization.

In our example we can see that “Launch in China” has the highest mean value, meaning people perceive it as the best way to achieve our goal. Not only that, but it also has the lowest standard deviation, meaning that there is a consensus that this is the best way to achieve our goal.

The Delphi Technique is a tool which can be used to reach consensus amongst a group of people. It is suited to situations when you have many participants in the group and/or when you’re looking to avoid the problems of groupthink to enable the group to agree on the best possible way forward. The Delphi Technique originates from the Cold War period, and is a family of techniques rather than one single repeatable procedure.

Cite this article

Minute Tools Content Team, The Delphi Technique | Method, Minute Tools, Mar, 2011 https://expertprogrammanagement.com/2011/03/the-delphi-technique-method/

Originally hailing from Dublin, Denis has always been interested in all things business and started EPM in 2009. Before EPM, Denis held a leadership position at Nokia, owned a sports statistics business, and was a member of the PMI's (Project Management Institute’s) Global Executive Council for two years. Denis now spends his days helping others understand complex business topics.

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[What is the Delphi method? Strengths and shortcomings]

Affiliation.

• 1 Katedra i Klinika Psychiatrii AM we Wrocławiu.
• PMID: 18567399

This article provides a condensed discussion and explanation of the Delphi method. This technique is used for problem solving and decision making. The Delphi Method was originally developed during the cold war by the U.S. Intelligence think tank, the RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, California in the 1950's and 1960's. It was designed for use on complex or ambiguous problems that exceed the capabilities of a single person. Most researchers make distinctions between the conventional Delphi and the policy Delphi. The last decades have seen increasing interest in the use of Delphi in a wide range of health-care applications. The Delphi method has been applied in a wide range of European Commission funded research projects, e.g. in EUNOMIA and DEMoB.inc projects. The Delphi method is characterized by the following features: anonymity of responses from panel experts, asynchronicity, controlled feedback and statistical description of responses. The objective of most Delphi applications is the reliable and creative exploration of problems or the production of suitable information for decision making.

Publication types

• English Abstract
• Decision Making, Organizational
• Delphi Technique*
• Empirical Research*
• European Union
• Group Processes
• Health Services Research / standards
• Quality of Health Care / standards
• Reproducibility of Results
• Research Design / standards*
• Surveys and Questionnaires / standards