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Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK

• Original Article
• Published: 03 January 2007
• Volume 4 , pages 137–147, ( 2007 )

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• Neil Dixon 1 &
• Edmond Brook 2  

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Global change is expected to result in worldwide increases in temperature and alteration of rainfall patterns. Such changes have the potential to modify stability of slopes, both natural and constructed. This paper discusses the potential effect of global climate change on reactivation of landslides through examination of predicted changes in rainfall pattern on the active landslide at Mam Tor, Derbyshire, UK. This landslide is of Pleistocene origin and is crossed by a road that is now abandoned. Damaging winter movement is known to occur when precipitation reaches both 1-month triggering and 6-month antecedent thresholds. Return periods for threshold exceedence is modelled statistically, and the climate change data from the UKCIP 2002 report (Hulme et al. 2002 ) is applied to this model. For the predicted changes in precipitation, it is shown that the instability threshold could decrease from 4 to 3.5 years by the 2080s for the medium–high climate change scenario. However, predicted temperature changes could influence the response of the landslide through increased evapotranspiration leading to a change in the triggering precipitation thresholds, and this will help counter the impact of changes in precipitation. Analysis of sources of uncertainty in the model has been used to establish the factors that contribute to the predicted changes in stability. Assessment of these factors can provide an indication of the potential impact of climate change on landslides in other areas of the UK.

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Acknowledgements

Thanks are due to Dr Tony Waltham, Dr Tom Dijkstra and Bob Elson for their helpful comments during the preparation of the manuscript.

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Department of Civil and Building Engineering, Loughborough University, Leicestershire, LE11 3TU, UK

Scott Wilson Ltd., Royal Court, Basil Close, Chesterfield, Derbyshire, S41 7SL, UK

Edmond Brook

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Correspondence to Neil Dixon .

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Dixon, N., Brook, E. Impact of predicted climate change on landslide reactivation: case study of Mam Tor, UK. Landslides 4 , 137–147 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0071-y

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Received : 14 June 2006

Accepted : 11 October 2006

Published : 03 January 2007

Issue Date : May 2007

DOI : https://doi.org/10.1007/s10346-006-0071-y

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Aerial photography and digital photogrammetry for landslide monitoring

2007, Geological Society, London, Special Publications

A review is given of the techniques that are available to extract relevant information from multi-temporal aerial photographs for use in the monitoring stage of landslide assessments. It is shown that aerial photograph interpretation reveals qualitative information on surface characteristics, which is helpful in detecting landslide features and inferring the mechanisms involved. Photogrammetrically derived products can be used to quantify these processes, providing distinctive advantages. Comparison of digital elevation models (DEMs) from different times provides detailed information on changes in surface topography, whereas orthophotos can be used to measure horizontal displacements. The various factors influencing the quality of the products are also identified. Examples from a case study on the Mam Tor landslide are used to illustrate the benefits of the different approaches.

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This paper demonstrates the value of historical aerial photographs for assessing long-term landslide evolution. The study focused on two case histories, the Mam Tor and East Pentwyn landslides. In both case histories we explored the variety of data that could be derived relatively easily using an ordinary PC desktop, commercially available software and commonly available photographic material. The techniques to unlock qualitative and quantitative data captured in the photographic archive were based on the principles of aerial photo-interpretation and photogrammetry. The products created comprised geomorphological maps, automatically derived digital elevation models (DEMs), displacement vectors and animations. The measured horizontal displacements of the Mam Tor landslide ranged from 0.09 to 0.74 m a−1 between 1953 and 1999, which was verified by independent survey data. Moreover, the observed displacement patterns were consistent with photo-interpreted geomorphological information. The photogrammetric measurements from the East Pentwyn landslide (horizontal displacements up to 6 m a−1 between 1971 and 1973) also showed a striking resemblance to independent data. In both case histories, the vertical accuracy was insufficient for detecting significant elevation changes. Nevertheless, DEMs proved to be a powerful tool for visualization. Overall, the results in this study validated the techniques used and strongly encourage the use of historical photographic material in landslide studies.

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Aerial photography is a very powerful tool for monitoring of slow moving landslides over periods lasting for decades. They offer a synoptic view of landslide morphology and activity changing at different time intervals. This case study focused on Umka landslide. The availability of multi-year aerial photo and orthophotos coverage helped to assess morphological changes, which occurred in the last forty years. The morphological changes have been revealed from aerial images from 1970–2007 period and orthophotos that were taken in 2001, 2005 and 2010. Comparing archived results with field investigations we found that the south-western part of landslide is most active part, with surface moving greater than 20 m. In this paper we presented an example where aerial photographs and digital photogrammetric techniques were used for tracking and modelling the slow moving landslide displacement of Umka landslide (Belgrade, Serbia).

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KEY WORDS: Photogrammetry, simulation, network design, landslide, digital camera, point tracking. ABSTRACT: According to pre-planned schedules, a series of two artificial rainfall events were applied to a forested slope in Ruedlingen, northern Switzerland. The experiments were conducted in autumn 2008 and spring 2009, the second of which resulted in mobilising about 130 m3 of debris. Both experiments were monitored by a photogrammetric camera network in order to quantify spatial and temporal changes. A 4-camera arrangement was used for the image acquisition. The cameras operated at a data acquisition rate of circa 8 frames per second (fps). Image measurements were made using the Least Squares image matching method, which was implemented in an in-house developed software package (BAAP) to compute 3D coordinates of the target points. The surface deformation was quantified by tracking the small (ping-pong and tennis) balls pegged into the ground. The average 3D point-positioning precision of ±1.6 cm was achieved in the first experiment and ±1.8 cm in the second experiment.

International Archives of Photogrammetry, Remote Sensing and Spatial Information Sciences

A sequence of historical aerial photographs captures morphological change, which can only be unlocked by using appropriate photogrammetric methods. There are several challenges: initially it is necessary to trace and acquire suitable imagery in an appropriate format; typically there is a lack of precise photo-control available at the time of photography and similarly, it is rare to have access to the original camera calibration certificate. Furthermore, it is essential to assess the quality of the extracted morphological data. Once these challenges have been overcome, such morphological change data can be used to develop landslide evolutionary models, which can be related to localised climate change. This paper describes the use of modern digital photogrammetric methods to extract high-resolution digital elevation models (DEMs) and orthophotographs using historical photography. Initial results from a case study at Mam Tor (Derbyshire, UK) show the potential of the methods to quantify past landslide movements. Photographs from four different epochs (1953, 1971, 1973 and 1990), of varying scale and quality, were processed. Difficulties caused by limited ground control and limited camera calibration data were solved by differential GPS and self-calibrating bundle adjustment methods. The quality of the data was at an adequate level to extract ground movements that were consistent with observations by other authors. A more detailed analysis of the displacements in both vertical and horizontal directions is expected to increase the understanding of the mechanics of the landslide. This is an ongoing research project in which these dated spatial data will be used to relate landslide evolution to climate change.

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Recent developments in digital photogrammetry allow high resolution quantitative data to be extracted. This paper will present the digital techniques used to extract morphological change from a time series of historical aerial photographs. Initial results from a case-study at Mam Tor (Derbyshire, UK) show the potential of the methods to quantify past landslide movements. Photographs from 1958 and 1971 were used to create digital elevation models and orthophotographs and used for the analysis. Due to the poor geometry of one set of images the vertical accuracy was rather low. But, in spite of the low resolution, significant horizontal movements could be detected and these were consistent with observations from other researchers. Incorporation of additional epochs will extend the series and improve accuracies. This research is part of an ongoing project to model the response of landslides to future climate change.

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