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Towards a contingency theory of corporate planning: a systematic literature review

• State-of-the-Art
• Published: 20 September 2017
• Volume 67 , pages 227–289, ( 2017 )

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• P. Maik Hamann 1  

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A major research stream examines corporate planning in its context by drawing on the contingency approach, which forms a major theoretical basis for the fields of strategic management and management control. This research paper provides a comprehensive review of this research stream and identifies important contingency factors, recurring results, and commonalities with the theoretical basis of the contingency approach. It reviews 195 studies that investigate the context factors of corporate planning at the organizational level of analysis and were published in ranked academic journals since 1967. This review contributes three findings to a contingency theory of corporate planning. First, this research stream is highly fragmented, replication of findings is scarce, and the cumulative growth of knowledge is restricted. My review shows that 866 different causal models link 30 context factors and 54 design aspects of the corporate planning system, and yet 498 of these causal models are only addressed in one single study. Second, the majority of contingency studies employ the selection fit approach and cross-sectional data. The more rigorous tests of contingency hypotheses, interaction fit and system fit approaches based on longitudinal data, are relatively scarce. Third, this review highlights consistent results across divergent research settings and designs. Thus, it identifies four important context factors of a corporate planning system: (a) management and planning philosophy, (b) organizational size, (c) environmental uncertainty, and (d) task interdependence. This comprehensive set of context factors facilitates the development of a more pronounced contingency theory of corporate planning.

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• Strategic Planning

Organization Theory

Throughout the research paper the terms planning and corporate planning are used synonymously.

The distinction between systems and processes is important. Systems are complex units compounded from many diverse parts that are subject to a common purpose, whereas processes are facilitated by systems. That is, systems are the means by which processes occur (Anthony 1965 ).

In addition, Miller et al. ( 1988 ) state: “Although the term ‘context’ is broad and ambiguous, we define it as the challenges and resources, economic as well as human, that surround an organization. Context usually represents a broad field of constraints, opportunities, and possibilities.”

I am indebted to an anonymous reviewer, who highlighted the importance of this topic in association with a contingency theory of corporate planning.

In management accounting research the distinction between decision-influencing and the decision-facilitating accounting information is also discussed (see Luft and Shields 2003 ). Decision-influencing information is employed for organizational control purposes, whereas decision-facilitating information is employed for organizational coordination (Nicolaou 2000 ). Thus, the latter type of accounting information is a basis of corporate planning in general as well as budgets in particular as defined in this paper. I would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for drawing my attention to this interesting topic in the management accounting literature.

Grabner and Moers ( 2013 ) provide a distinction between management control as a system and as a package. In their definition the concept “system” is narrowly defined as a set of management control practices that is conscious decided upon in a design process upon by taking interdependencies between these practices into account. In contrast, management control as a package “represent the complete set of control practices in place” (Grabner and Moers 2013 , p. 408). The system concept of the contingency approach is broader in its basic definition because systems are complex units compounded from many diverse parts that are subject to a common purpose (Anthony 1965 ).

CP systems are thus defined as a complex unit in organizations compounded from many diverse parts subject to the common purpose of being concerned with decisions in organizations, alignment with the future, and changes in the behaviour of an organization’s members.

The review protocol and results of the structured, computerized search are available from the author upon request.

German scholars used to publish research mainly in the German language, forming a distinct market for scientific publication (Wagenhofer 2006 ). German language studies usually addressed corporate planning in a setting similar to the corporate planning framework shown in Fig.  1 .

The 31 journals, in alphabetical order, are Academy of Management Journal ; Academy of Management Perspectives/Academy of Management Executive ; Academy of Management Review ; Accounting, Organizations, and Society ; Administrative Science Quarterly ; Betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung und Praxis ; California Management Review ; Contemporary Accounting Research ; Decision Sciences ; Die Betriebswirtschaft ; Die Unternehmung—Swiss Journal of Business Research and Practice ; European Accounting Review ; Harvard Business Review ; Journal für Betriebswirtschaft ; Journal of Accounting and Economics ; Journal of Accounting Research ; Journal of International Business Studies ; Journal of Management ; Journal of Management Accounting Research ; Journal of Management Studies ; Long Range Planning ; Management Accounting Research ; Management Science ; Organization Science ; Review of Accounting Studies ; Schmalenbach Business Review ; Schmalenbachs Zeitschrift für betriebswirtschaftliche Forschung ; Strategic Management Journal ; The Accounting Review ; Zeitschrift für Betriebswirtschaft ; and Zeitschrift für Planung und Unternehmenssteuerung .

The JOURQUAL2-Ranking is prepared and published by the German Academic Association of Business Research and covers–unlike international rankings–all leading German-language business administration-related periodicals and all leading international journals in one comprehensive ranking (Schrader and Hennig-Thurau 2009 ). The JOURQUAL2 shows statistically significant, positive, and moderately high correlations with other international journal rankings, such as the 2008 ISI Journal Citation Impact Factors (r  \(=\)  .57, \(p < .01\) ), the British Association of Business Schools Academic Journal Quality Guide from 2009 (r  \(=\)  .64, \(p < .01\) ), the French Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ranking from 2008 (r  \(=\)  .70, \(p < .01\) ), and the Dutch Erasmus Research Institute of Management Journals Listing from 2006 (r  \(=\)  .56, \(p < .01\) ).

Because German-language journals are not entered systematically into literature databases, publication analysis in German-speaking countries involves scanning all selected periodicals and recording relevant articles by hand (Schäffer and Binder 2008 ).

Upon revision I included the study of Song et al. ( 2015 ) in my sample of studies. This article in press had been made available online at the Strategic Management Journal after I had finished my initial literature search. I am grateful to an anonymous reviewer, who recommended this study to me.

A table of all 195 studies with key characteristics of each study as well as a reference list of the 193 articles is available from the author upon request.

This finding is also evident in the management control literature on the diagnostic or interactive use of budgets. I was unable to identify studies, which fully comply with the inclusion criteria of this review. These studies focus either on the individual level of analysis (e.g., Chong and Mahama 2014 ), do not include any context factors (e.g., Grafton et al. 2010 ; Koufteros et al. 2014 ; Sponem and Lambert 2016 ) or are case studies of a single organization (e.g., Kober et al. 2007 ; Mundy 2010 ).

The literature review of Otley ( 2016 ) provides an up to date examination of the state of art of contingency thinking in management accounting and control. The conclusions drawn there and in this review of a contingency theory of corporate planning correspond at many levels. I’d like to thank an anonymous reviewer, who highlighted this current article in press to me.

Luft and Shields ( 2003 ) provide an extensive discussion of the different causal-model forms and shapes of the explanatory link.

The coding manual including working definitions for all constructs and example definitions from sample studies is available from the author upon request.

Derfuss ( 2009 , 2015 , 2016 ) has conducted three meta-analyses regarding (a) individual consequent variables, (b) context factors, and (c) the relationship with performance of participative budgeting. His results mirror the spurious and conflicting findings of the contingency studies regarding the involvement of low, middle, and top management in the planning process in my review.

I would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for highlighting the limitation of endogeneity as well as providing ideas to address this limitation.

Also it does not comply with the inclusion criteria of this review, the article of Chenhall and Langfield-Smith ( 1998 ) provides another outstanding example of a system fit study. In this study the system fit of an organization’s strategy, six different management techniques (encompassing also strategic planning techniques) and six different management accounting practices are examined with a cluster analysis. Organizational performance is compared across the resulting six clusters to examine system fit.

I would like to thank an anonymous reviewer for these suggestions.

Whereas the early contingency approach highlights the balance and selection of competing roles, uses or approaches, the paradox literature examines conditions in which these roles, uses or approaches can be attended to simultaneously (Gibson and Birkinshaw 2004 ; Smith and Lewis 2011 ). Thus, research examining planning or management control systems through a paradox lens may also enrich a contingency theory of corporate planning.

Jarvis et al. ( 2003 ) offers guidelines with regard to and an encompassing discussion of different types of first order and second order constructs. In management accounting research a similar reasoning is applied to the construct of interactive control systems (Bisbe et al. 2007 ).

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Acknowledgements

I would like to thank Lucia Bellora, Joan Luft, Sally Widener, Jatinder N. D. Gupta, Frank Schiemann, Tobias Brux, and the participants of the WHU joint chair meeting, especially Erik Strauss, for their insightful comments on previous versions of this manuscript. I further appreciate the valuable support of Christian Ott, who provided indispensable feedback and assisted in coding the studies of this review. I am also grateful for the support of Johannes Stürmer, who assisted to set my review in contrast to previous reviews. I am indebted to two anonymous reviewers, which provided numerous valuable recommendations.

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Hamann, P.M. Towards a contingency theory of corporate planning: a systematic literature review. Manag Rev Q 67 , 227–289 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11301-017-0132-4

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The Essentials of Contingency Planning and Estimating Contingency for Any Project

By Kate Eby | April 3, 2023

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Contingency planning helps your project team deal with project risks if they happen. We’ve gathered expert tips on creating effective contingency plans and the best tools to help determine the appropriate amount of contingency for any project. 

Included on this page, you’ll find step-by-step guidance to prepare a contingency plan , the top challenges in preparing and using contingency plans , and information on how to determine the right amount of contingency for a project . In addition, you can find a downloadable project contingency plan template to help get you started.

What Is Contingency Planning in Project Management?

Contingency planning is what your project team does to prepare for specific risks that might happen during a project. A contingency plan might include extra funds, extra staff, or steps to take if a particular issue arises. 

Contingency planning is “surviving disruptions,” says Erika Andresen, a business continuity and resilience expert, author, and Founder of EaaS Consulting . “It’s determining the priorities and making strategic decisions about how and when and where you're going to spend money and time in order to prepare for those things.”

“I consider it to be the ‘what if?’” says Melody Smith, a human resources and information systems consultant and CEO and Principal Consultant with New Jersey-based CAM Consulting Solutions . “I am the ‘what if?’ person. It drives people crazy. What if this happens? It may not; let's hope it doesn't. But it is being prepared to know that something is always going to happen, and because something is going to happen, you want to be able to have a plan of attack on how to address it, as far as making sure you have enough resources.”

What Is Project Contingency?

Project experts usually refer to project contingency as the resources set aside as part of contingency planning. These are extra financial or staff resources or extra project time that your team might need to use if a risk happens.

One form of project contingency is cost contingency . These are extra funds allotted to the project for the team to spend if certain risks happen. Another more common form of project contingency is contingency time . This is extra time built into a project schedule to account for project risks.

Experts say that project contingency, both contingency time and cost contingency, is needed in all but the smallest projects.

What Is Contingency Time in Project Management?

Contingency time is extra time that project leaders build into the overall schedule of a project. The project team can use this extra time to deal with the impacts of certain risks and avoid missed deadlines or contract penalties.

Experts sometimes use other terms that mean the same thing as contingency tim e, such as schedule contingency, time contingency, schedule buffer, schedule margin, and schedule float .

“Very rarely do most projects deliver on time,” says Diane Davidson, Owner of Clever Fox Advisory , a strategic planning consultancy focused on improving finance operations. “Now, I'm not talking years late, but there’s typically at least a week or two-week delay. Something always comes up. Somebody who's very important goes on vacation.”

Davidson says she builds in contingency time on almost all projects. “If we finish early, before using all contingency time, great! We save money on the project,” she says. “But if we don't finish early, then you don't have to worry about me coming back to you to say, ‘Hey, I need more money to finish this project.’ The project will still finish on budget.”

Dos and Don’ts for Establishing Contingency Time in a Project Schedule

Experts recommend a number of best practices for establishing contingency time in a project schedule. Many of these practices focus on ensuring that contingency time is visible in the project schedule. This helps the team use contingency time appropriately.

Here is the correct way to establish contingency time:

• Conduct Risk Analysis: Your team should establish contingency time based on a detailed and formal analysis of risks and how they might impact the schedule.
• Make Contingency Time Visible in the Project Schedule: Contingency time must be visible in the project schedule. You can add it to specific project phases or to the overall project. Either way, set aside a specific amount of time, usually in days or weeks, and label it as contingency time .

Experts also warn of common pitfalls with contingency time. Here are some practices to avoid when adding contingency time to your project schedule:

• Hiding Contingency Time: Team members should always clearly label contingency time in the project schedule. Never lengthen certain phases of a project — or an entire project schedule — without identifying what parts of that schedule the team considers to be contingency time. In other words, contingency time should not be hidden.
• Confusing Contingency Time with Management Reserve: Contingency time is not the same as management reserve . Some organizations use the term management reserve to define extra time and resources that management might decide that a project or an organization needs in general. Company leaders hold these resources in reserve to account for risks that are difficult to quantify or that relate to other larger organizational issues. This is different from contingency time within a project.

How Much Contingency Should a Project Have?

Experts sometimes recommend adding a rough estimate of contingency to projects. Most often this is contingency time. When estimating the amount in this way, experts most often recommend adding 20 percent of extra time to a project for contingency. 

For example, if a project is expected to take 200 hours, the team would add an additional 40 hours for contingency time. 

Davidson says project leaders must be careful not to add too little contingency time — or contingency costs — to a project.

“I've seen where people have a 12-month project, and they’ll say: ‘We’ll build in an extra week,’” says Davidson. “Well, that’s not even a day per month. Or ‘This is a $6 million project — let's put in another $20,000. That’s two days of work for the number of people.

“Twenty percent [of added contingency] is what I've typically found,” she says.

Precise Ways to Figure Out Appropriate Contingency for a Project

For many projects, experts do not recommend using a broad contingency estimate. Instead, project leaders should estimate contingency with more precise tools. Some options include team estimates, Monte Carlo simulations, and phase contingency estimates.

Here are some more precise ways to estimate contingency time:

• Team Estimates: Project leaders can ask the project team to provide three estimates of the time they think they will need to finish a project or each stage of a project. The three estimates include the time needed if everything goes perfectly, the time needed if there are several problems and issues, and the most likely time. The project leaders can then establish a good estimate of contingency needed based on all of those estimates.
• Monte Carlo Simulations: Monte Carlo simulations are complex models that predict the probability of different outcomes based on a large number of variables. Project managers use these simulations to determine the most likely length and cost of a project. Monte Carlo simulations are highly complex, which is why they are often performed with software. Financial experts also use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the most likely possibility of how an investment might perform over time. 
• Phase Contingency Estimates: Many experts recommend that project teams make detailed estimates of contingency amounts for each major phase of a project. These estimates are based on the risks that could happen during each specific phase. The team might also establish contingency for each subphase of a project. For instance, it might establish a contingency amount for the time it will take to get permits for a construction project. “I think the most important elements of a contingency plan are to determine the project phases and pad the hours during the more complex stages of the program,” Davidson says. For a software development project, she continues, “This is typical during the development and testing phases. The planning and closing phases usually do not involve as much overhead and can be shortened as needed.” Expert Tip: Always remember to label contingency amounts as contingency time within each phase, experts say. The phase shouldn’t just be lengthened from 10 weeks to 12 weeks without indicating where contingency time has been added.

When to Use a Project Management Contingency Plan

Experts recommend creating a contingency plan for any risk that could have a significant impact on a project or organization. After your team identifies project risks and conducts a thorough risk analysis, it should begin creating a contingency plan.

It’s important to understand that contingency plans can be created only for risks that your team identifies. A contingency plan cannot be created for risks that your team has not identified or would have no ability to identify or foresee.

Contingency Plan vs. Risk Management

Project risk management is the practice of identifying, managing, and mitigating risks in projects. A contingency plan is one part of project risk management. Other parts of project risk management include creating a risk log and assigning owners to risks. 

To learn more about project risk management, see this comprehensive guide on risk management planning .

Contingency Plan vs. Mitigation Plan

Mitigation plans and contingency plans are similar but not identical. A mitigation plan helps you reduce the likelihood or impact of a risk, while a contingency plan helps you map the response to a risk once it occurs. 

In general, a contingency plan focuses on quickly and appropriately dealing with a risk after it happens, while a mitigation plan focuses on preventative measures that make a risk less impactful or less likely to occur.

Elements of a Project Management Contingency Plan

A contingency plan should have several basic elements to help your team respond to risks when they happen. Those elements include a risk probability assessment, details on triggers for an event, and an overall response strategy.

Other important elements include a timeline for the contingency plan and a plan for communicating with important organizational leaders and project team members about the specific risk and contingency plan.

Learn more about the important elements of a contingency plan in this helpful guide to contingency planning.

How to Prepare a Project Management Contingency Plan, Step by Step 

Experts recommend that your project team follow a number of basic steps to create a good contingency plan. First, identify and prioritize risks. Next, create and share your contingency plan. Finally, continually monitor and review your plan. 

Here are the main steps of preparing a project management contingency plan:

• Identify the Risks: Your team will need to identify all risks that might impact your project. 
• Prioritize Risks: Your team will assess all the risks that it has identified. Determine which risks are most likely to happen or could have the largest impact on the project, and use these findings to organize risks from highest to lowest priority. .
• Create a Plan: Your team will create a detailed contingency plan to deal with any risks that your team identifies as important. The plan should include how your team will address the risk when it happens. It will also assign responsibilities for tasks as part of the plan. 
• Share the Plan: Once a tentative plan has been created, your team will share it with external stakeholders and team members. Review their input or suggestions as you improve the plan.
• Continually Monitor and Review the Plan: Though your plan might be finalized and approved at the beginning of the project, it could still change. As a project progresses, new risks will arise, and risk priorities will shift. Your team should continually review the contingency plan and make changes where needed.

Project Management Contingency Plan Template Example

Download a Blank Project Management Contingency Plan Template for Excel | Google Sheets

Download a Project Management Contingency Plan Example for Excel | Google Sheets

Download this completed example project management contingency plan to help you understand contingency plans. You can use this example plan template — with sections on contingency assessment, contingency analysis and evaluation, and mitigation measures — to write a contingency plan for risks in your own project.

Why Are Contingency Plans Important in Project Management?

Contingency plans are vital for managing any project that involves risk. When project managers create contingency plans, they prevent negative risks from derailing or significantly hampering the progress of a project. 

Here are a few of the basic reasons contingency plans are an important part of project management:  

• They Show Your Team’s Complete Preparation: Contingency plans show stakeholders and project team members that your team is fully prepared to deal with important risks. “I think there’s no project, no activity, nothing that goes as we plan,” Davidson says. “I think we have to understand that it's very nearsighted to take a project, no matter what the duration is, and say, ‘Oh, everything is going to be a sunny day scenario.’ It’s not showing that I'm a really good project manager. A great project manager knows things are going to go off the rails. With people, maybe there’s a learning curve. Maybe people aren't picking things up as quickly — which is fine — so I build time in to assist with that. That's just showing that I understand how to run a project.”
• They Lower the Risk of a Project Derailing: When risks occur, they can endanger the progress or success of a project. Contingency plans help your team ensure that won’t happen to your project, even when risks occur. “If you have this contingency plan and are able to start to see that things are maybe starting to unravel a bit, the Debbie Downer comes out and you're able to say, ‘We may want to have someone available over the holiday because something may not work,’” says Smith. “You're more forward-thinking. You're saving time, you're saving money, and you're saving resources.”

Challenges of Contingency Planning in Project Management

Although contingency planning has many benefits, some project teams will face challenges when creating and using contingency plans. Challenges include getting buy-in from organizational leaders, being overconfident in an initial plan, and following through on contingency plans.

Here are some common challenges project managers might face during contingency planning:

• Teams View Contingency Planning as Low Priority: Some people in organizations view contingency planning as a low priority in comparison with other project management work. Project leaders often need to convince them of the importance of contingency planning. “The line I like to use — that I took from somebody else — is, ‘Planning is hard. Explaining why you didn’t is even harder,’” says Andresen. “Because, yes, it's a pain in the butt to do the plan.” But worse, she says, is when a risk becomes a real issue and an important stakeholder asks: “You didn’t even think about this? You kind of knew this was going to happen, or that this was even potentially going to happen, and you decided not to do anything about it?”
• Organizational Leaders Don’t Prioritize Contingency Planning: Even organizational leaders sometimes don’t understand the importance of contingency planning. Project leaders must work to get buy-in from company leaders and sometimes convince them of the need for contingency budgets. “That's always been my challenge,” Smith says. “How do you influence somebody — the people who have the money, the CEOs, or even the head of departments — that we need this? All they're telling you is, ‘You have to make it work.’ I think that's the piece that's always driven me crazy.”
• The Team Is Overconfident in Plan A: When your project team is very confident in your overall project plan, they may believe that there’s no need to prepare for certain risks. That can make it difficult for them to work on and support good contingency planning.
• The Team Spends Too Little Time Identifying Important Risks: Contingency planning doesn’t work when your team doesn’t identify real risks to worry about, of course. Your team must fully examine all possible risks, decide which are most important, and make plans to deal with them.
• The Team Is Uncertain About What Resources Are Available: Teams might have challenges in understanding how to plan for potential risks and issues if they don’t understand the resources available to help deal with those issues. In those cases, the team might not “really know what to put into a contingency plan,” says Smith, “because you don't know what will be available, You can think of any piece of a project that can possibly go wrong, but if you don't know what other resources you're going to have available, it's a little difficult to be able to put that together.”
• The Team Has a Plan but Doesn’t Follow It: Some organizations create a contingency plan, and when a risk becomes a reality, they frantically react and ignore the plan. It happens more often than people might think, Andresen says: “If you have a plan, follow it. Don't make the decision not to follow the plan.”

How to Manage a Contingency Budget in Project Management

It’s important to manage a contingency budget well in project management to ensure the project team has all resources it needs to complete a project successfully. Managing a contingency budget means understanding contingency reserves, contingency costs, and contingency funds. 

For more resources and information, see this guide to managing a contingency budget.

Contingency Reserve in Project Management

A contingency reserve is the amount of resources that an organization sets aside to deal with project risks. Most often, project managers allocate funds in a contingency reserve, but some managers may also include staff time.

Organizations will often use estimates and detailed calculations to determine the amount of contingency reserve they need for a project, either in costs, time, or both. 

A common method for determining the amount of contingency reserve is to calculate expected monetary value (EMV) with a quantitative risk matrix . This calculation takes the probability of a risk happening and multiplies that by the estimated financial cost of the risk happening. The calculations for each risk are added together for the total contingency reserve that would be required.

EMV = Probability x Impact 

Tip: Despite the name, expected monetary value can estimate contingency time as well as contingency cost.

The below graphic shows how a team might track its contingency reserve for a project, month by month. It would track the contingency reserve in concert with the project’s total budget and the running costs for the project.

Contingency Cost in Project Management

Contingency cost in project management is a part of the project budget  that is allocated to risk events that are not in the original cost estimate for the project. This money can help reduce the impact of known risks and compensate for unknown risks.

A Contingency Fund in Project Management

In project management, a contingency fund is the amount reserved to cover contingency costs. Also called the contingency reserve , this fund addresses contingency costs, rather than contingency time.

Building Contingency Planning into Project Teams

Project leaders should keep in mind the importance of good contingency planning as they build their project teams. For example, having a team with diverse skill sets and a mix of experience levels will help create a balanced response to risk events.

Here are a few things project managers should keep in mind when building contingency planning into project teams:

• Create a Team with Diverse Skill Sets: Project managers should consider all skills they will need for a project, including special skills that might factor into various contingency plans for the project. They’ll want to make sure they have the range of skills required for their contingency plans.
• Assemble a Team with a Mix of Experience Levels: Project managers should consider gathering both junior and senior team members for their projects. This will give them the breadth they need to deal with various risks and issues.
• Consider Team Skill Sets: Project managers will want to understand and track the exact skills of each of their team members. This will allow them to incorporate those skills into contingency plans. It will also allow them to call on the right person immediately when a risk occurs.

The Importance of Scheduling in Project Contingency Planning

Good contingency planning can happen only when project leaders are transparent and clear about project scheduling. This means clarity on time goals for various phases of the project and what contingency time might be available.

Project managers should also continually monitor the schedule, make changes when necessary, and be transparent with the entire team about those changes.

It’s especially important for project leaders to be transparent about schedule issues and changes with organizational leaders and other important stakeholders.

As a consultant in project management, Davidson says it’s important to have conversations with clients early and often about project scope, budget, and deadlines. “It's better also to prepare because the worst thing you can do is get to the fifth month and say, ‘We're not going to deliver on time,’” she says. “I see more people get in trouble because they don't have the upfront honest conversations in the beginning. They overpromise and underdeliver.”

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Businesses need a plan to get back on track when a disaster interrupts daily operations. Contingency plans, also known as “business continuity plans,” “emergency response plans” and “disaster recovery plans” help organizations recover after a disruption.  

Whether they’re preparing for a global outbreak of a deadly virus, crisis management around a data breach or the loss of an important client, contingency plans help organizations bounce back after a negative event.

Companies create many kinds of recovery strategies for everything, from the merger of key competitors to the insolvency of the bank that processes its employee payroll. In India, the government was busy designing a contingency plan as a drier-than-expected monsoon season approached.¹ Meanwhile, in Hong Kong, a large bank was preparing a plan b in case a host of new sanctions were levied as the result of a recent geopolitical development.²

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Here are five steps companies use to create effective business contingency plans.

The contingency planning process begins with a risk assessment to gauge the potential impact of each risk. Typically, business leaders and employees conduct risk analysis.

Team members begin with a brainstorming session where they discuss potential risks, courses of action and the company’s overall preparedness. During this stage, it’s important to be clear about the scope of the project and invite all relevant stakeholders to give input. Companies don’t need to create a risk management plan for every threat they face, just the ones deemed highly likely and with the potential to interrupt business operations.

Effective business impact analysis (BIA) is critical to understanding different business functions and how they will react to unexpected events. For example, while a shortage in micro-processors might be devastating to a part of a business that deals with the manufacture of gaming consoles, it likely has little to no impact on the same company’s HR department.

To assess the urgency of creating an action plan for this specific threat, the company would need to know how much of its revenue was being generated from the part of the business threatened by the microprocessor shortage. If gaming consoles are a high percentage of their revenue, they will put a strong plan in place soon.

A well-developed BIA helps stakeholders assess risk and better understand which parts of their business are most critical to daily operations.

After identifying the risks their company faces, determining the likelihood and severity of each risk and conducting a BIA, business leaders can follow a simple, three-step process to build their backup plan.

Identify the triggers that set their plan into action: For example, if a hurricane is approaching, at what point does the approaching storm trigger the contingency plan? When it’s 50 miles away or a 100? They must make clear decisions so the teams they put in charge of execution know when to start their work.

Design an appropriate response: The threat the business prepared for arrives. Teams must know exactly what’s expected of them so the company can recover quickly. Compile clear, accessible instructions, protocols that are easy to follow and a way for everyone to communicate with each other.

Delegate responsibility clearly and fairly: Like any other initiative, contingency planning requires effective project management to succeed. In the case of an existential threat such as a natural disaster, everyone involved in helping the company recover must know their role and be properly trained to perform it.

For example, in the case of a fire, it wouldn’t be fair to expect employees untrained in firefighting to pick up a hose. However, with the right training, they might conduct headcounts or go floor-to-floor to ensure that other employees have evacuated.

One way to improve workflow among teams when designing a plan is to create a RACI chart . RACI stands for responsible, accountable, consulted and informed and is a widely used process to help teams and individuals delegate responsibility and react to crises in real time.

While it can be hard to justify the importance of putting financial resources into something that might never happen, these past few years have taught us the value of good contingency planning. Think of all the supply chain problems, critical shortages of personal protective equipment and financial havoc wreaked by the pandemic. What would have been different if organizations had had effective contingency plans in place?

Cost and uncertainty are significant barriers when convincing business leaders of the importance of making an investment in contingency planning. Since all costs for contingency plans are estimated—there’s no way of knowing precisely how events will disrupt a business—decision-makers are understandably hesitant.

Different industries have different ways of approaching this problem. In the construction industry, it’s common to set aside 10% of the overall budget of a project for contingencies. Other industries use different methods.

One popular method estimates risks according to a percentage of how likely they are to occur. By this method, if there’s a 25% risk of an event occurring that will result in USD 200,000 in recovery costs, the company must set aside 25%—or USD 50,000—to be in compliance with their contingency plan.

Markets and industries are constantly shifting, so the reality that a contingency plan faces when it is triggered might be different than the one it was created for. For example, after the 9/11 terror attacks, many of the contingency plans that the US government had in place were suddenly irrelevant because they had been prepared decades before.

To avoid a similar disconnect between plans and threats, businesses need to constantly test and reassess the plans they’ve made. For example, IBM’s guidelines mandate that plans should be tested at least once annually and improved upon as necessary.³ If new risks are discovered and their severity and likelihood is deemed high enough, the old plans might be scrapped altogether.

When businesses are hit with an unexpected disruption, a strong contingency plan gives much-needed structure to the recovery process. Disruptive events cause chaos and decision-makers and employees are often left scrambling to understand what is happening and how best to respond to it. Having a strong plan to turn to can help restore confidence and show the way forward.

Here are a few benefits business leaders who create strong contingency plans can expect:

Businesses that create strong plans recover faster from a disruptive event than businesses that don’t. When a negative event occurs, the faster the business recovers and gets back to business-as-usual, the lower the risk to the company, its customers and its employees.

A good contingency plan minimizes the damage to a company—both reputational and financial. For example, while a data breach will undoubtedly damage a bank’s reputation, as well as its bottom line, how the bank responds will play a critical role in whether its customers decide to continue doing business with it.

Many organizations use a strong contingency plan to show employees and customers that they take preparation seriously. By planning for a wide range of potentially damaging events, business leaders can show investors, customers and workers that they’ve taken the necessary steps to minimize risk.

Many plans focus on natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes or fires. Others deal with data breaches, unexpected network downtime or the loss of a key employee such as a CEO or founder. Here are a few examples of contingency plan templates that deal with broadly different scenarios across a range of industries.

Severity and likelihood of risk: The manufacturers have been following the news in a region where they source specific airplane parts and have deemed the likelihood of disruption there “high.” They initially conduct a search for another supplier but quickly learn that it takes months—even years—to find one. Since the part is necessary for the construction of all their airplanes, they label the severity of this disruption “high” as well.

Trigger: Suppliers make the manufacturer aware that they will soon run out of the needed part due to a disruptive geo-political event in its country of origin.

Response: The manufacturer begins the search for a new supplier of the much-needed part in a more stable country.

Severity and likelihood of risk: The managers of a bank know of a vulnerability in their app that they are working to fix. If the app is hacked and their information systems are compromised, they are likely to lose vital customer data. They rate the likelihood of this event as “high” since, as a financial institution, they are a desirable target.

They also know from watching their competitors face similar situations that the potential for disruption to their business in an event like this is great. They rate the severity of this risk as “high” as well.

Trigger: IT makes the bank’s managers aware that the bank’s app has been hacked and their customers’ data is no longer secure.

Response: The app is immediately shut down and customers are notified that their data has been compromised. They are made aware of the steps that the bank is taking to ensure that they have access to their money and that their personal information is not available to anyone on the dark web. An on-call team of specially trained security experts come in to restore the bank's systems and secure customer information.

Severity and likelihood of risk: The plant’s managers know that severe flooding might spread un-treated water into the city’s streets and public waterways. Both the severity of this risk and its likelihood given the impending storm are deemed “high. ”

Trigger: The hurricane’s path turns toward the city and approaches to less than 100 miles away with wind speeds higher than the threshold rated “safe.” The plant’s contingency plan is put into action.

Response: All necessary workers are recalled to the plant 24/7 and measures are taken to treat as much of the water as possible before the hurricane arrives. According to their plan, whatever is left over will be pumped into holding tanks that are designed to withstand a hurricane. When windspeeds rise to a certain velocity, the plant itself is shut down and all workers evacuated.

Help your business respond quickly to changing conditions with IBM Maximo, an integrated cloud-based solution that harnesses the power of artificial intelligence (AI), Internet of Things (IoT) and advanced analytics to maximize performance and minimize costs and downtime.

Learn more about the process of disaster recovery planning and Disaster-Recovery-as-a-Service.

Discover how global supply chains responded to the COVID-19 pandemic and are developing better ways to balance efficiency and resilience.

See how businesses are leveraging AI and other emerging technologies to maintain business continuity amid disruption and uncertainty.

Explore the business continuity measures IBM takes to help prevent or reduce the impact of potential threats.

Unlock the full potential of your enterprise assets with IBM Maximo Application Suite by unifying maintenance, inspection and reliability systems into one platform. It’s an integrated cloud-based solution that harnesses the power of AI, IoT and advanced analytics to maximize asset performance, extend asset lifecycles, minimize operational costs and reduce downtime.

1  “ El Nino contingency plan being readied for farmers and output ” (link resides outside ibm.com), Elara Securities Pvt Ltd., 27 April 2023.

2  “ HKMA has prepared contingency plans in case of severe sanctions ” (link resides outside ibm.com), UBS Global Research and Evidence Lab, 5 May 2022.

3  “ IBM business continuity management position paper ”, IBM Global Technology Services thought leadership white paper, September 2019.

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Facility for Rare Isotope Beams

At michigan state university, new frib precision measurement program advances understanding of proton halos, theoretical physicists and experimentalists work together to measure the mass of a rare isotope expected to form a rare proton halo, publishing the first results from frib’s precision measurement program. .

In May 2022, the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) at Michigan State University (MSU), launched its precision measurement program. Staff from FRIB’s  Low Energy Beam and Ion Trap (LEBIT) facility take high-energy, rare-isotope beams generated at FRIB and cool them to a lower energy state. Afterward, the researchers measure specific particles’ masses at high precision. 

The LEBIT team, led by  Ryan Ringle , adjunct professor of physics at FRIB and in the MSU Department of Physics and Astronomy and senior scientist at FRIB, and  Georg Bollen , University Distinguished Professor of Physics and FRIB Experimental Systems Division director, recently published a research paper that used the facility to take a step in verifying the mass of aluminum-22. Researchers think this exotic isotope demonstrates a rare but interesting property—specifically, that the nucleus is surrounded by a “halo” of protons that loosely orbit the nucleus. This halo structure reveals distinctive physical properties during its fleeting existence.

“This program requires a lot of extra beam preparation to perform experiments, and this is the first measurement in FRIB’s science program,” Ringle said. “This measurement could not have been done in a reasonable time at FRIB’s predecessor, the National Superconducting Cyclotron Laboratory, and it highlights our facility’s potential moving forward. Considering this was done with one-eightieth of FRIB’s power specification, this was like a warm-up before exercising.” 

The team published its results in  Physical Review Letters (“ Precision Mass Measurement of the Proton Dripline Halo Candidate 22 Al”).

Capturing elusive proton halos

While most atoms have electrons tightly orbiting the nucleus, protons and neutrons are part of the nucleus itself. However, when atoms encounter many of the same charged particles under certain conditions, they can create halos that orbit the nucleus beyond the pull of the strong nuclear force—the force that would normally keep these particles within the nucleus. While all halo structures are rare fleeting phenomena, neutrons are usually observed as halo particles. A nucleus’s positive charge usually repels protons’ positive charges, meaning that halos made of protons are even rarer. Measurements on nearby isotopes suggested that aluminum-22 might be an isotope that could form a proton halo, but researchers needed to verify this directly in other experiments. 

To achieve this, the team creates a high-energy isotope beam of aluminum-22 using a process called “projectile fragmentation” at FRIB. The researchers create a beam from a heavy, stable atomic nucleus of a given element—in this case, an isotope of argon—then accelerate the beam to half the speed of light. The beam then hits a target with these ultra-fast-moving particle projectiles. This violent collision creates rare, short-lived isotopes that the researchers can shepherd into an instrument to filter out the particle of interest. They then lower the temperature to slow them down into a uniform beam and measure particle mass accurately. 

While the team was able to accurately measure the mass of aluminum-22, it is only part of verifying the isotope’s proton halo structure. The LEBIT researchers’ colleagues in the  Beam Cooler and Laser Spectroscopy (BECOLA) facility at FRIB now plan to take the next step in verifying the proton halo by measuring the charge radius—the distribution of protons around the nucleus—as well as how much the nucleus may be deformed from its traditional, spherical shape. Taken together, these measurements can unequivocally confirm the existence of a proton halo structure around aluminum-22. 

Ringle pointed out that the collaboration between theoretical physicists and experimentalists at FRIB plays an essential role for research like determining the existence of a proton halo around a rare isotope such as aluminum-22. 

FRIB provides research opportunities to graduate students 

Ringle credited students on the team for playing a key role in advancing this research. One of LEBIT’s graduate students, Scott Campbell, took this project on as part of his dissertation. 

“He really took charge of running this experiment from start to finish,” Ringle said. “The students who work with us really benefit from the wealth of expertise we have at this facility. Nowhere else is a facility like this located in the middle of a university campus. It allows students to come in for an hour or two between their classes or before they go home for the day. They can work at the lab part-time and easily pair that with taking classes. But our facility gets benefit as well; we have increased access to talented, motivated students.” 

Campbell studied physics and computer science at Gonzaga University as an undergraduate. He was excited by the prospect of coming to MSU for graduate school in large part to FRIB being on campus and being a major resource for physics students. “I was very excited by the prospect of doing for nuclear physics research at MSU, especially with FRIB ramping up during my studies,” he said. “We have access to these great facilities and a great community, and we get to participate in groundbreaking advances in nuclear science.” 

Campbell also noted that FRIB not only offers world-class facilities, but also networking opportunities and mentors like Ringle. “We are surrounded by colleagues who are interested in your research and want to help you push science forward,” he said.

Eric Gedenk is a freelance science writer.

Michigan State University operates the Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB) as a user facility for the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science (DOE-SC), supporting the mission of the DOE-SC Office of Nuclear Physics. Hosting what is designed to be the most powerful heavy-ion accelerator, FRIB enables scientists to make discoveries about the properties of rare isotopes in order to better understand the physics of nuclei, nuclear astrophysics, fundamental interactions, and applications for society, including in medicine, homeland security, and industry.

The U.S. Department of Energy Office of Science is the single largest supporter of basic research in the physical sciences in the United States and is working to address some of today’s most pressing challenges. For more information, visit energy.gov/science.